It takes a few years to really judge a draft. I think you can sometimes go back too far, like, say, five years and sometimes players’ careers, good careers even, have ended in that time due to injuries or life changes. But three years seems fair to me, so let’s take a look and see who would go where if the NFL had a 2012 draft do-over.
I’m actually going to cheat a little in this draft, letting all the final pre-draft and draft-day trades stand. Would the St. Louis Rams have traded the No. 2 pick, knowing what they know now about Sam Bradford’s injuries in 2013-14? Probably not. Would the Redskins have traded three No. 1 picks and a second round pick for the Rams? No. 2 selection? Yes, but they wouldn’t take Robert Griffin III.
Teams that ended up without a first-round pick in 2012 for various reasons? The Oakland Raiders, the Atlanta Falcons, the New Orleans Saints, the Baltimore Ravens and the Denver Broncos. What’s crazy about this draft is that so many teams had multiple first-round picks (The New England Patriots, the Cleveland Browns, the Minnesota Vikings, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Cincinnati Bengals) and how thoroughly most of them whiffed on their picks.
1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford (Original pick – Luck)
The Colts not only didn’t whiff on the most important pick in the draft, they got the next great quarterback of this era.
2. Washington Redskins – Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin (Original pick – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor)
The Redskins still take a quarterback after making the trade with the Rams, but they get a significant upgrade with Wilson over RGIII.
3. Cleveland Browns – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M (Original pick – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama)
The Browns take their A&M quarterback two years early and are much happier with the choice.
4. Minnesota Vikings – Nick Foles, QB, Arizona (Original pick – Matt Kalil, OT, USC)
Kalil was a great pick for the Vikings as you’ll see with the following pick, but the issue in Minnesota has been, until they nabbed Teddy Bridgewater last season, quarterback. Foles fixes that two years early and makes QBs go 1-2-3-4 in our draft re-do.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Matt Kalil, OT, USC (Original pick – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State)
Talent-wise Justin Blackmon was an easy pick for the Jaguars to make, but his indefinite suspension and drug/legal issues have ruined a promising NFL career. Kalil shores up their line and they can still pick a QB later in round two like Kirk Cousins.
6. Dallas Cowboys – Luke Kueckly, LB, Boston College (Original pick – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU)
I just killed Cowboys fans with that one, I know. The idea of Kueckly with a star on his head has probably haunted them for the last three seasons.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State (Original pick – Mark Barron, S, Alabama)
Barron was a good pick, not this high, but he didn’t fit the Bucs’ scheme under Lovie Smith so they traded him to the Rams last season, where he’s flourished. Now, imagine Cox next to Gerald McCoy in Smith’s 4-3 Tampa-2 defense.
8. Miami Dolphins – Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina (Original pick – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M)
The Dolphins are the first team to get screwed by our re-draft, losing their franchise quarterback. Instead, they get the big wide receiver they’ve tried to add in free agency multiple times with Jeffrey.
9. Carolina Panthers – Bobby Wagner, LB, Utah State (Original pick – Luke Kueckly, LB, Boston College)
The Panthers also got nailed in the re-draft, but they get almost identical production out of Wagner, who the Seahawks grabbed in the second round of the real 2012 draft.
10. Buffalo Bills – T.Y. Hilton, WR, Florida International (Original pick – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina)
Gulmore was an OK pick. Not a top 10 pick, but he’s a solid starter at corner in the NFL. Hilton is, at worst, the second best receiver in this draft and a big play machine for the Colts.
11. Kansas City Chiefs – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis (Original pick- same)
The Chiefs are the first team in our new draft to get the same guy. Poe was a great pick then and a great pick now and the cornerstone of their 3-4 system now.
12. Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU (Original pick – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State)
The Eagles lose out on Cox in our draft, but basically get a push with the big-bodied Brockers.
13. Arizona Cardinals – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (Original pick – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame)
This pick may come as a surprise, considering that RG3 may not end up the starter in Washington before the 2015 season ends. Regardless of how he flames out there, there’s no question that Griffin’s potential is great and with a real coach and coordinator, who knows what he could eventually turn into.
14. St. Louis Rams – Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame (Original pick – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU)
The Rams are our third team to get screwed in the re-draft, but Smith is a great consolation prize, solidifying a position that took the Rams another draft and a trade to settle.
15. Seattle Seahawks – Bruce Irvin, LB, West Virginia (Original pick – same)
The Seahawks are our second team to end up with the same player, Irvin, who makes the pass rush and run defense in Seattle go.
16. New York Jets – Quinton Coples, LB, UNC (Original pick – same)
Back-to-back picks stay the same in our re-draft, showing how good the Jets and Seahawks played their boards the first time around.
17. Cincinnati Bengals – Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama (Original pick – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama)
Kirkpatrick is a decent starter, but Jenkins is a playmaker and the best cornerback in this draft with a nose for the endzone, scoring five defensive touchdowns in his first three seasons.
18. San Diego Chargers – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa (Original pick – Melvin Ingram, LB, South Carolina)
Ingram is a starter when he’s healthy, which isn’t often. Reiff is heading toward being an elite left tackle. There’s no doubt what the Chargers would rather have today.
19. Chicago Bears – Malcolm Floyd, WR, Notre Dame (Shea McClellin, LB, Boise State)
Losing out on Alshon Jeffrey opens up a hole in Chicago’s offense and he’s a much better pick than a mediocre linebacker like McClellin.
20. Tennessee Titans – Alfred Morris, RB, Florida Atlantic (Original pick – Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor)
Wright is a fine wideout and will go early in the second round of our re-draft, but Morris, who the Redskins stole in the sixth round is the replacement for Chris Johnson in Tennessee.
21. New England Patriots – Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse (Original pick – same)
Jones was hurt a lot last season, but had double-digit sacks in 2013. The Pats make no change in a re-draft, but they think about it.
22. Cleveland Browns – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (Original pick – Brandon Weedon, QB, Oklahoma State)
Picking Weedon here was insane to start with, but Miller turned out to be the second best running back in this draft. Since they skipped blowing a pick on Trent Richardson earlier, they lock in their back here.
23. Detroit Lions – Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California (Original pick – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa)
After getting Reiff stolen away from them earlier in the draft, the Lions grab the next best tackle with Schwartz.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – David DeCastro, OG, Stanford (Original pick – same)
The Steelers got their man the first time out so no changes needed here.
25. New England Patriots – Levonte David, LB, Nebraska (Original pick – Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama)
Hightower has been a good player for New England, but David is a beast and the only season he didn’t reocord over 140 tackles was his rookie year. He had 139.
26. Houston Texans – Danny Trevathan, LB, Kentucky (Original pick, Whitney Mercilus, LB, Illinois)
Mercilus is a starter, but Trevathan is a star.
27. Cincinnati Bengals – Cordy Glenn, OT, Georgia (Original pick, Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin)
Zeitler can’t stay healthy and Glenn is a starting left tackle. This is an easy choice for the Bengals.
28. Green Bay Packers – Mychal Kendricks, LB, California (Original pick – Nick Perry, LB, USC)
Perry doesn’t start. Kendricks is one of the best players on Philadelphia’s defense.
29. Minnesota Vikings – Trumain Johnson, CB, Montana (Original pick – Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame)
The Vikings had to scrape the bottom of the barrel in free agency last year to get two starting corners and they still managed just three interceptions between them. Johnson was hurt for seven games last year and had three picks all his own..
30. San Francisco 49ers – Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama (Original pick – A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois)
Jenkins is an all-time 49ers’ bust and with the attrition San Francisco has experienced at linebacker, Hightower would have been a welcome addition.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Brandon Marshall, LB, Nevada (Original pick – Doug Martin, RB, Boise State)
Marshall blew up this season in Denver in place of injured Danny Trevathan and the Bucs need that kind of linebacker in Smith’s system. Martin was a star rookie, but has played in a total of 17 games in the two seasons since. He still gets picked in this draft, but later.
32. New York Giants – Doug Martin, RB, Boise State (Original pick – David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech)
Yes, Martin has struggled to stay healthy in Tampa Bay, but in New York the pressure would be off him as the focus of the offense. Martin would be a perfect run-pass option for the Giants and, frankly, they should try to work out a trade to add him to the roster in real life.
