Two offenses with significantly different offensive schemes, the Indianapolis Colts (-3) are set to host their AFC South foe Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium. CBS has the TV rights and this early afternoon game is scheduled to start at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
The Titans approach this Sunday AFC game as the dog here and they’re currently receiving 3 points. The Titans are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Colts are -140. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 48 points, and if one side gets out in front early, it’ll likely create a worthwhile live betting opportunity.
The betting odds have moved a little from when they were originally posted. The line opened at -3 and the game’s O/U was placed initially at 47.5.
The profitable Titans are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.9 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-6. The Colts are down 0.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-4-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 6-3.
The Titans are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against AFC South opponents. The Colts are 4-5 SU overall and 1-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Titans are coming off a resounding 34-10 win over New England last week. Marcus Mariota completed 16 passes for 228 yards and two touchdowns. Dion Lewis (just 57 rushing yards on 20 attempts) and Derrick Henry (58 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) propelled the ground attack in the win while Corey Davis (seven receptions, 125 yards, one TD) and Jonnu Smith (three catches, 45 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
Indianapolis just earned a 29-26 win over Jacksonville in Week 10. The team’s defensive secondary let the Jaguars air it out for 324 yards and two touchdowns. Leonard Fournette was a bright spot in the loss, recording 53 rushing yards and a score on 24 attempts, along with 56 yards on five catches for Jacksonville. For Indianapolis, Andrew Luck completed 21-of-29 passes for 285 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Marlon Mack (29 rushing yards on 12 attempts) spearheaded the ground attack in the win as Dontrelle Inman (four receptions, 41 yards) and T.Y. Hilton (three catches, 77 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Tennessee has run the ball on 51.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Indianapolis has an overall rush percentage of 37.6 percent. The Titans have rushed for 114 yards/game (including 125 per game against South opponents) and have seven scores via handoffs this year. The Colts are averaging 114 rush yards per game (61 in conference) and have five total rushing TDs.
If 2018 results can translate to this game, then it seems like the Colts ought to have the edge in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded only 10 sacks while the D-line has registered 21 sacks. The Titans offensive line has given up 28 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss just 23 times.
The Titans offensive scheme has averaged 204 yards in the air overall (150 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Colts have recorded 275 pass yards per contest (374.5 against AFC competition) and have 26 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Tennessee should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents run for an average of 100 yards and pass for 242 yards per game. The Indianapolis defense has allowed 281.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 107.8 yards per game on the ground. The Titans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.17 to opponents, while the Colts have given up a 6.68 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Mariota is up to 1,258 yards on the year, and has completed 66 percent of his 174 attempts with five passing scores and five interceptions. He’s got a 5.17 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.63 over the past two outings.
We’re expecting the Titans to control tempo by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Along with Corey Davis (520 yards, two TDs), Dion Lewis (334 rush yards, one rush TD, 210 receiving yards) and Derrick Henry (331 rush yards, three rush TDs) have been focal points in the offensive game scripts for Tennessee.
Andrew Luck has completed 224-of-340 passes for 2,233 yards, 23 TDs and nine INTs for Indianapolis. His ANY/A stands at 6.32 for the year and 9.98 over his last two outings.
The Colts also like to heavily feature their backfield. In addition to Marlon Mack (48 receiving yards, one receiving TD), T.Y. Hilton (396 receiving yards and four receiving TDs) and Eric Ebron (one rush yards, one rush TD, 426 receiving yards, eight TDs) have gotten a lot of touches lately.
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Tennessee defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this season. Indianapolis has recorded 21 sacks.
The Indianapolis offense has lost five fumbles this season while Tennessee has lost four.
The Titans offense has registered two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Colts have accounted for three such plays.
The Tennessee defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Indianapolis has given up one such play.
The Tennessee offense has created four rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Indianapolis has created six such runs.
The Titans defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Colts have given up eight such runs.
The Over/Under for Indianapolis’ last outing was set at 48. The over cashed in the 29-26 win over Jacksonville.
Over its last three contests, Indianapolis is 2-0-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
In its last three contests, Tennessee is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Tennessee’s last game was 46.5. The under cashed in the team’s 34-10 win over New England.
As a team, Tennessee has produced 4.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.8 over its last two.
Indianapolis has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
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