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2017 ATP French Open Quarterfinals Picks

French Open

The French Open tournament now heads into the quarterfinals. The matchup everyone is waiting for is just two wins away. Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic cannot play in Sunday’s upcoming final, but they can play in Friday’s semifinals. The two men played several times at the French Open, including four straight years from 2012 through 2015. After not playing last year, they could resume their rivalry if they can get through each quarterfinal.

Before we look ahead to their matches, though, let’s look back and see what happened in Monday’s four contests. It was mostly a by-the-book type of day as all of the favorites cashed in. No. 1 seed Andy Murray advanced as he had no problems with Karen Khachanov. Khachanov lost in straight sets. We also saw Kei Nishikori move on. He dropped the first set to Fernando Verdasco but ended up winning the next three sets. Stan Wawrinka, who is a former French Open winner, also moved on with ease. He had to get to seven games in each of the first two sets against fan favorite Gael Monfils but he moved on in straight sets. Lastly, Marin Cilic didn’t have to play much more than one set. He won the first set and was up 3-0 in the second when Kevin Anderson retired.

Here is a look at their matches:

Dominic Thiem vs. Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic very nearly double-bageled Dominic Thiem in the Rome semifinals a few weeks ago. Thiem was caught off guard by Djokovic, while the Serbian played extremely well, one of the best matches of his entire year. Many will say that the comprehensive nature of Djokovic’s win is an obvious indication that Thiem cannot win at the French Open. There is a point there, but it’s not the whole story.

Thiem had just beaten Rafael Nadal a day earlier in Rome. He worked tirelessly to score that victory and deal Nadal his only clay-court defeat this year. Thiem did not have the aggressiveness or freshness needed to go at Djokovic. This time, Thiem will have had plenty of rest coming into the match. He has not had to work too hard through his first four rounds. He should be able to make his match much closer than in Rome. That much is clear. What’s not clear is if he can go beyond merely playing a close match. Can he actually win?

This is where reality enters the picture. Thiem said after the loss in Rome that Djokovic is a bad matchup for him. When a player admits to something like that, it’s rarely if ever a good sign for their next battle. It’s true that Thiem is being honest and is not trying to hide anything, but he is still conceding that he does not know how to handle Djokovic. That is something Djokovic surely knows and will use to his advantage in this match. Thiem has so much work to do, and it’s probably too much to accomplish in one match. Djokovic has to be the choice here.

Pick: Djokovic in straight sets

Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Rafael Nadal

Pablo Carreno Busta is enjoying his best tennis season as a professional. He beat Grigor Dimitrov to reach the fourth round at the French Open and score his first win over a player in the top 13 of the ATP Tour rankings. Then he played Milos Raonic on Sunday in the fourth round. He was down two sets to one, and he faced a set point when trailing by a set. He dug out of those difficult moments and won the match in an extended fifth set. Carreno Busta reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal. He moved into the top eight of the ATP Race to London for the season-ending World Tour Finals in November. He also beat a player in the ATP top five for the first time. Carreno Busta has achieved so many milestones, but the fun should end in the quarterfinals. Rafael Nadal hasn’t lost a set in Paris. He has lost only one clay match this year. He is playing at a very high level. It is simply foolish to bet against him at this point.

Pick: Nadal in straight sets

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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