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2017 ATP French Open Wednesday Picks

French Open

The French Open tournament continues with the quarterfinals. Two quarterfinals scheduled on Tuesday were pushed back by weather, so the four quarterfinals in total could finish on the same day, though that’s subject to change.

Of interest in the two holdover matches is the fact that Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are playing. Djokovic will have a tough test against No. 6 seed Dominic Thiem. Thiem is a young, up-and-comer and is a clay-court specialist. If he’s to beat Djokovic in one of these Grand Slams, this would be it. Also, Nadal is on the other matchup. Nadal has been on cruise control at the French Open and by all accounts, should get by his match too. He’s facing Pablo Carreno, and he’s a huge favorite in that spot. Beyond that, Nadal and Djokovic will square off in the semis. They’re in the same bracket, so pay attention as we could get a “final” matchup in the semis as they’re deemed to be the two best players right now.

At any rate, those matchups have been moved to Wednesday. For full previews, check out yesterday’s article. Now we’ll look at the other two matches that were originally scheduled for Wednesday in Paris.

Andy Murray vs. Kei Nishikori

Murray and Nishikori met in the quarterfinals at a recent major tournament, the 2016 U.S. Open in New York. Murray led two sets to one and started the fourth set in great form, but a noise inside Arthur Ashe Stadium created a let during a point. Nishikori won the replayed point, Murray got angry in a way which hurt his concentration, and Nishikori went on to take the match in five sets. Murray wants revenge for that match, but his bigger motivation is to get to the final in Paris and defend his finalist points from last year, which will help him maintain the World No. 1 ranking. If Murray gets to the final and Novak Djokovic loses at any point in the tournament, Murray will increase his points lead over Djokovic for number one.

Beyond Murray’s motivation, the bigger reason to take him in this match is Nishikori’s always-fragile health. The Japanese star was in big trouble on Saturday in the third round against Korea’s Hyeon Chung. Nishikori led when the match was suspended due to rain, but he was down 3-0 in the fourth set and struggling with his back. The rain saved him, and he has acknowledged that he was fortunate since that occurrence. Murray has appeared to have played his way back into form, at least to the point that Nishikori will have to be on top of his game. Given the limitations to Nishikori’s fitness, it is doubtful that Nishikori can win three sets against Murray on clay, which demands endurance and stamina. Murray might get taken to four, but he probably won’t need that many sets anyway.

Pick: Murray in straight sets

Stan Wawrinka vs. Marin Cilic

Stan Wawrinka is clearly the better player, and also the man who handles important matches better, especially when they are best of five. Wawrinka has not hidden his preference for five-set matches. They allow him to find a rhythm on the court and give him more time to understand both his own game and what an opponent is doing. However, Wawrinka did need to take a medical timeout midway through his match against Gael Monfils on Sunday. The injury appeared to be something related to his groin. It is unknown if that will affect him to the extent that he can’t play well. This makes it harder to render a betting decision. The weather conditions might also play a role in terms of shaping how well Wawrinka moves on the court. Nevertheless, at Grand Slam events, players get a day off. If Wawrinka had to play matches on consecutive days, he’d likely be in bigger trouble, but with a day off, he has a better chance of being able to bounce back. This probably won’t be an easy match for Wawrinka, but he still has the big groundstrokes which should give him the edge against Cilic.

Pick: Wawrinka in four sets

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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