Kyle Busch clinched his spot in the round of 12 in the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series playoffs with a win at New Hampshire, joining Martin Truex Jr. It’s interesting to see that the two drivers who are favored to win it all (according to the futures) have won each of the first two races in the playoffs.
The scene now shifts to Dover for the Apache Warrior 400, the second race of the season held at this track, and there are just two races to go until the next round starts and four drivers are eliminated. Let’s take a closer look at this week’s race.
Details
Event: Apache Warrior 400
Category: NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series
Date: Sunday, October 1st, 2:00 PM PM ET
Location: Dover International Speedway, Dover, Delaware
Busch’s win was his fourth of the season as he led 187 laps en route to the checkered flag, and he was followed by Kyle Larson, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski and Truex, who led 112 laps. Truex is also the defending race-winner for the fall Dover race, where he led 187 laps in 2016.
Past Five Winners
2016: Martin Truex Jr.
2015: Kevin Harvick
2014: Jeff Gordon
2013: Jimmie Johnson
2012: Brad Keselowski
The Field
Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite for this week’s event as he’s been the most impressive, consistent driver of the year. Kyle Busch got the win last week but he’s second in line in terms of the odds to win this week. He’s tied with Kyle Larson. When you read below, you’ll see why we don’t view Busch as the best bet this week. Johnson is the only other driver in this week’s field that is inside of 10/1, so clearly, the odds makers are thinking that one of these four drivers wins the race.
What To Know About The Track
Dover International Speedway opened in 1969 and it is a one-mile track that is called the “Monster Mile” for a reason; it can chew up drivers and spit them out if they’re not careful. It is banked at 24 degrees in the corners and nine degrees down the straightaways, so drivers can get a lot of speed coming out of the corners, but the straightaways are very short and timing is everything when there are 35-40 cars on the track. Also, Dover is one of two all-concrete tracks in NASCAR, and the other is Bristol Motor Speedway.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Jimmie Johnson over Kyle Busch
Johnson is the underdog in this matchup at +125 to -160 for Busch, and for good reason as Busch has seven top-10s in his last eight starts, including a pair of wins. Meanwhile, Johnson has just two top-10s in those eight starts and finished 14th at New Hampshire. However, it is Dover and to win here, you probably have to go through Johnson, who didn’t have the best car at Dover in the spring and won for the 11th time, which is the most among all drivers. Five of his 11 Dover wins have come in the fall and he has finished in the top five here in 16 of 31 starts, which is staggering. Busch has a pair of wins at Dover in 25 starts, but neither has come in the fall.
Top-Five Pick: Matt Kenseth
Kenseth finished third at New Hampshire for his fifth top-five in his last 10 starts, but he knows he needs to turn these good finishes into wins, and he is going to a place where he is generally pretty good. Kenseth has three wins and an average finish of 12.8 in 37 starts at Dover, although none of his wins have come in the fall. Still, Kenseth is a dangerous veteran who is leaving his team after this year, so he really has nothing to lose. He’s an intriguing bet to finish well at this week’s race.
Odds To Win 2017 Apache Warrior 400
Martin Truex Jr +300
Kyle Busch +450
Kyle Larson +450
Jimmie Johnson +700
Kevin Harvick +1200
Denny Hamlin +1200
Brad Keselowski +1600
Matt Kenseth +1600
Chase Elliott +2000
Joey Logano +2500
Ryan Blaney +2500
Erik Jones +2500
Kurt Busch +3000
Jamie McMurray +4000
Clint Bowyer +4000
Daniel Suarez +7500
Ryan Newman +10000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +10000
Kasey Kahne +10000
Austin Dillon +12500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +15000
Field +3000
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