The PGA Tour returns to the Sunshine State and the Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida for this week’s Valspar Championship. Some of the best in the world will compete on the Copperhead Course with a total of $6.3 million on the line. The fact that last week’s World Golf Championship event was held in Mexico rather than in Florida definitely doesn’t help when it comes to attracting more highly ranked players and that is the reason this week’s field is a little weaker than some initially expected. However, despite the slightly weaker field there is still a good chance we will get another exciting finish like we saw in each of the last two years when the winners were determined by a playoff.
Event Details
Event: Valspar Championship
Category: PGA
Date: Mar 9-12
Location: Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club, Palm Harbor, Florida
In 2015, Spieth went to a playoff round with Patrick Reed and Sean O’Hair before finally emerging with the win at 10-under. Then in 2016 it was Charl Schwartzel that edged out Bill Haas in last year’s playoff. There is no guarantee we will get the same level of drama at this year’s event but with the margin for error so slim at this course we could see another close finish among the top contenders in the final round.
Past Five Winners
2016: Charl Schwartzel -7 (Playoff)
2015: Jordan Speith -10 (Playoff)
2014: John Senden -7
2013: Kevin Streelman -10
2012: Luke Donald -13 (Playoff)
What To Know About The Course
The winning scores from the last few years indicate how difficult this course can be. Driving Distance and Driving Distance aren’t the most important numbers as the average DA ranking of the last five winners is 37.6 and the average DD ranking of the last five winners is 39.6. The key will likely be finding the smaller than average greens, which means Greens In Regulation should be valued even more than usual this week. The last two winners have had a Putting Average of second so strongly consider the GIR and Putting numbers this week.
The Field
With so many big names out this week the tournament appears to be wide open with Henrik Stenson and Justin Thomas listed as the co-favorites to win outright. Gary Woodland, Ryan Moore, Matt Kuchar and Daniel Berger are all considered among the favorites as well. The defending champion Schwartzel is available at decent odds at +4000 odds while the 2014 winner John Senden is available at +15000 to win outright. There are definitely some strong value plays if you want to take a chance on a long shot but you might be better off sticking to the names near the top of the list of favorites at the Valspar Championship.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Charl Schwartzel over Jason Dufner
This isn’t by any means a knock on Dufner but Schwartzel won this tournament a year ago and yet he is available around the same odds as Dufner heading in to this event. Schwartzel was excellent finding the greens and putting at last year’s Valspar Championship so we expect another strong performance this week. Dufner should be in the mix as well but we like Schwartzel to produce the better result as the defending champion at this tournament.
Top-Five Pick: Justin Thomas
The Sony Open winner Thomas is in fine form heading in to this event and his course form is strong as well as he finished 10th and 18th here in his first two visits. Thomas fell from first to fifth in a disappointing Sunday last week but he should be motivated to bounce back and should have a more significant edge with a weaker field overall. Thomas has started the 2017 calendar year on fire and we like him to finish in the top-five while contending for the outright win this week.
Valspar Championship Tee Times
1st tee – Thursday
6:50 a.m. — Boo Weekley, Chad Campbell, Willy Wilcox
7:01 a.m. — Chez Reavie, David Hearn, Ryan Blaum
7:12 a.m. — Chad Collins, Blayne Barber, Whee Kim
7:23 a.m. — Peter Malnati, Smylie Kaufman, Retief Goosen
7:34 a.m. — Danny Lee, David Lingmerth, K.J. Choi
7:45 a.m. — Cody Gribble, Troy Merritt, Luke Donald
7:56 a.m. — Rod Pampling, J.J. Henry, Chris Kirk
8:07 a.m. — Billy Hurley III, Charley Hoffman, Tony Finau
8:18 a.m. — Robert Garrigus, Jason Kokrak, Jon Curran
8:29 a.m. — Michael Thompson, Sean O’Hair, Morgan Hoffmann
8:40 a.m. — Johnson Wagner, Zac Blair, Luke List
8:51 a.m. — Patrick Cantlay, Grayson Murray, Keith Mitchell
11:40 a.m. — Brendon Todd, Kevin Na, Harold Varner III
11:51 a.m. — Seung-Yul Noh, Carl Pettersson, C.T. Pan
12:02 p.m. — Bryce Molder, Graham DeLaet, Andrew Loupe
12:13 p.m. — Aaron Baddeley, Nick Taylor, Robert Streb
12:24 p.m. — Jason Dufner, Scott Piercy, Charles Howell III
12:35 p.m. — Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, Steve Stricker
12:46 p.m. — Bill Haas, Matt Kuchar, Gary Woodland
12:57 p.m. — Brian Harman, Jonas Blixt, Cameron Tringale
1:08 p.m. — Ken Duke, Jason Bohn, Tyrone Van Aswegen
1:19 p.m. — Scott Brown, Jamie Lovemark, Patrick Rodgers
1:30 p.m. — Bryson DeChambeau, Trey Mullinax, Zach Wright
1:41 p.m. — Dominic Bozzelli, Lee McCoy, Jimmy Stanger
10th tee
6:50 a.m. — Russell Henley, Bud Cauley, Steve Wheatcroft
7:01 a.m. — Kyle Stanley, Adam Hadwin, Derek Fathauer
7:12 a.m. — John Senden, Steve Marino, Brett Stegmaier
7:23 a.m. — Jim Herman, Ben Martin, Billy Horschel
7:34 a.m. — Hudson Swafford, Matt Every, Brian Gay
7:45 a.m. — Patrick Reed, Jim Furyk, Ernie Els
7:56 a.m. — Henrik Stenson, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson
8:07 a.m. — James Hahn, Brian Stuard, Keegan Bradley
8:18 a.m. — Geoff Ogilvy, Daniel Summerhays, Kyle Reifers
8:29 a.m. — John Huh, Freddie Jacobson, Byeong Hun An
8:40 a.m. — Martin Laird, Lucas Glover, Soren Kjeldsen
8:51 a.m. — J.J. Spaun, Seamus Power, Beau Hossler
11:40 a.m. — Ben Crane, Harris English, Martin Flores
11:51 a.m. — Spencer Levin, Patton Kizzire, Michael Kim
12:02 p.m. — Ryo Ishikawa, Sung Kang, Cameron Smith
12:13 p.m. — Russell Knox, Steven Bowditch, Nick Watney
12:24 p.m. — Webb Simpson, Stewart Cink, Vijay Singh
12:35 p.m. — Si Woo Kim, Graeme McDowell, Hunter Mahan
12:46 p.m. — Ryan Moore, Greg Chalmers, Alex Cejka
12:57 p.m. — Ian Poulter, George McNeill, Ollie Schniederjans
1:08 p.m. — Kevin Streelman, Shawn Stefani, Mark Hubbard
1:19 p.m. — Scott Stallings, Ricky Barnes, Wesley Bryan
1:30 p.m. — Sam Saunders, Kelly Kraft, Richy Werenski
1:41 p.m. — J.T. Poston, Rod Perry, Charlie Danielson
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