The mid-term elections are a little more than two weeks away, but it’s not just national legislature seats that are on the line for the Democrats and Republicans. State legislatures and gubernatorial spots are up for grabs too. Those races aren’t getting the national publicity that US Senate and House contests are receiving, but they will shape state politics for the foreseeable future. Some of these elections are surprisingly close, so let’s dig into the mid-term election betting odds.
2018 Mid-Term Election Gubernatorial Betting Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
California Gubernatorial Election Odds
Gavin Newsom (D) -2225
John Cox (R) +540
California is a pretty blue state when it comes to national elections, but they have shown a proclivity for Republican governors. Three of the last five governors of the biggest state in the nation were Republicans, and that gives the GOP a glimmer of hope in a state that is widely portrayed as full of left-wing voters.
It’s hard to see John Cox having much of a chance this year though. Gavin Newsom was very popular as the Mayor of San Francisco, and he has been well-liked as a Lieutenant Governor. He has been up by as little as eight and as much as 17 points in recent polls, and he has a 98.7 percent chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight. Betting on Newsom to become California’s next governor means laying a lot of chalk, but it’s the right bet.
Florida Gubernatorial Election Odds
Andrew Gillum (D) -195
Ron DeSantis (R) +110
This is one of the most hotly contested gubernatorial races in the country. Florida has been the most important state in terms of elections for more than two decades, and both the Republicans and the Democrats have poured money into this contest.
It didn’t take long for this one to get ugly. Ron DeSantis was practically hugging Donald Trump with his rhetoric throughout the primaries, and Andrew Gillum’s team has been using that against DeSantis to appeal to minority voters throughout the state. In turn, Gillum has been branded as a socialist by DeSantis’ team, in an effort to use Republicans’ favorite buzzword to scare up opposition to him.
The polling has been incredibly close. Gillum has been up by just one point in the last three polls, but FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model gives the Democratic candidate a 71.6 percent chance of winning as of October 20. More people are expected to show up to the polls to vote in this midterm than the 2014 midterms because of ballot measures like Amendment 4 (which restores certain felons’ voting rights), so Gillum might be worth a play at these odds.
Georgia Gubernatorial Election Odds
Stacey Abrams (D) +100
Brian Kemp (R) -160
The race in Georgia between Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams has gotten ugly too. Abrams’ campaign called out Kemp for potentially disenfranchising 53,000 registered voters, and that has led to calls for Kemp to resign his post as the state’s top elections official. Kemp has denied all claims of impropriety, but there is a case pending in the federal district court over the matter.
As for the election itself, I think there is a lot of value in Kemp at this price. FiveThirtyEight has Kemp with a 56.3 percent chance of winning as of October 20, but Kemp has been ahead in every poll released over the last two months. Although there was much consternation about the GOP doing poorly in special elections since Trump’s inauguration, it looks like Republican voters are starting to return home and will vote the party ticket in these midterms.
Georgia is a state that will eventually turn blue due to shifting demographics, but I don’t think it will happen for another two to six years.
