What began as a thought exercise about which NFL stars might fetch first-round picks has shifted into a realistic market analysis after a year of blockbuster trades, the column notes. Deals that once seemed unthinkable — including Micah Parsons’ move to the Packers — set off a wave of transactions that altered how teams price top talent.
Recent deals cited include Sauce Gardner being moved for two first-round picks, Quinnen Williams traded for a first- and a second-rounder, and Dexter Lawrence II becoming the third player since 2000 to be traded for a top-10 pick. Maxx Crosby was briefly dealt for two first-round picks before that trade was annulled. The Patriots sent a first-round pick to the Eagles for A.J. Brown, while the Rams traded three picks and Jared Verse to the Browns for Myles Garrett; Garrett will join Trent McDuffie as trade acquisitions on a new-look Rams defense.
The column highlights practical limits on such deals: the current CBA permits teams to trade picks only up to three years into the future, and players can be used in place of draft choices, as Verse did in the Garrett exchange. It also stresses that no amount of draft capital will necessarily move certain players if teams are unwilling to trade them — for example, a team without a replacement at quarterback is unlikely to swap its starter despite offers.
Positional value remains a major factor in trade pricing, with quarterbacks, edge rushers and wide receivers typically commanding larger returns than running backs, tight ends and off‑ball linebackers, a pattern that aligns with contract valuations. The update adopts a conservative approach to this year’s draft class, noting that players taken in the top 10 would likely fetch a first-rounder or more, while selections from No. 11 onward are less certain, especially for non‑premium positions.
The column also references an industry poll in which Josh Allen finished atop Jeremy Fowler’s survey of league executives as the league’s best quarterback, and lists Allen, for the Buffalo Bills, as the lone player tied to a seven first-round‑pick valuation in the AFC East section. The assessment reflects how teams have become more willing to pay steep prices for proven pass rushers and disruptive defensive players, even at older ages.
