Every NHL postseason develops its own personality, and the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs have been a mix of expected outcomes and recurring surprises, per the analytics.
Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes entered the conference finals as two of the clearest favorites, but early results underlined the unpredictability of the postseason. The Vegas Golden Knights took a 2-0 lead into the third period, extended it to 3-0 and held off Colorado for a 4-2 victory, while the Montreal Canadiens scored four unanswered goals in the first period and added two more in the third to finish off Carolina.
Those back-to-back outcomes left both the Avalanche and Hurricanes staring at 1-0 series deficits. Per Elo, the odds of both series-opening upsets occurring were just 9.6 percent. Colorado also lost Game 2 at home without star defenseman Cale Makar and surrendered five unanswered goals after a 3-0 first-period advantage in Game 3. The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Avalanche, long considered Cup favorites, now face the prospect of being swept out of the Western Conference finals.
Last season’s playoffs were an outlier offensively: postseason scoring averaged 3.10 goals per game, the third most in any playoffs this century, and rose 2.1 percent from a 3.04 regular-season mark. That kind of playoff scoring increase has occurred only five times since the 2000 postseason, with 2010 showing a larger rise of 5.2 percent. The longer-term norm is a decline: since 2000 goals per game have dipped 6.2 percent from the regular season to the playoffs.
Through the early rounds in 2026, scoring has moved back toward that norm. After a 3.13 goals-per-game regular season, playoff scoring sits at 2.96, a 5.4 percent drop close to the historical average. Teams such as Carolina and Colorado ranked among the top five in both offense and defense during the regular season, while Montreal has advanced in the tighter defensive environment of this year’s postseason.
