The Florida State Seminoles are two wins away from completing an undefeated regular season but despite their 10-0 record (straight up), they have posted just three wins against the spread all year.
While some will point out the obvious in that they are just 3-8 ATS and have cost backers a ton of money, the smart bettors took advantage of Florida State’s situation and found ways to profit.
Betting The Opponent
The fact that the Seminoles struggled to cover made them an excellent bet a couple of ways that might not seem so obvious. Smart bettors took Florida State to win straight up (parlayed with other picks) while betting on their opponents to cover inflated spreads that – at one point – reached as 56.5 points.
There were games when Jameis Winston watched from the sideline or, even worse, was barred from even doing that and the Seminoles were still somehow favored by double-digits. Anybody that followed this team close enough would have realized that they were getting a lot more respect from the oddsmakers than they should have. As a result, it opened a door to bet them both ways in order to capitalize on their success and their struggles.
Halftime Betting
Florida State has also served as an excellent team to bet halftimes on since their early deficits have narrowed the second half spreads despite the fact that they have had to overcome some big deficits to earn wins.
Last week’s 30-26 win over Miami provided the perfect example as the Seminoles trailed 13-0 after the first quarter and 23-10 at half only to rally and win the game by four in order to cover the original spread of 2.5 as well as the second half spread with a +17 differential over the final two quarters. It wasn’t the first time Florida State came back after trailing at the half and their ability to battle back in games has made them an excellent team to bet at the half.
Unders
Since FSU has struggled to move the football and score points early in games over the past month the under bet has also become a strong play in their games. Three of the last four Seminoles games have stayed under the total with 59, 55, and 63 the three numbers that hit.
The lone time that a Florida State game went over this past month was in the 42-31 win over Virginia in which it was listed at a season-low 51 points. The two teams easily went over that number but that was the one time in four games that it happened.
The Seminoles will have a tough time covering double-digit spreads in each of their final two games as they host Boston College and then Florida. Betting FSU straight up has been a lock as they are 10-0 and while you might not want to lay that type of juice, parlaying it with other picks makes plenty of sense. It has also been favorable to bet their opponents ATS for a profitable 7-3 mark. And if they do happen to fall behind, use live in-game betting or second half lines to your advantage.
