The Wimbledon men’s singles tournament has a very familiar face as the favorite. After Novak Djokovic won two titles and Andy Murray lifted the trophy last year, Roger Federer has become the bettors’ choice. It’s understandable with his four titles in 2017. Nevertheless, it might seem puzzling that Federer is now the favorite. Let’s get more of an explanation on that and other topics:
Roger Federer
There is no doubt that Federer is in very good form, worthy of being considered the favorite to win Wimbledon this year. Federer won the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, and then the grass-court warm-up tournament in Halle this past Sunday. Why, though, is he the favorite? The answer is not so much him, but the fact that Andy Murray has had some hip problems, diminishing his candidacy, and the fact that Novak Djokovic has been struggling. Djokovic took the title from Federer in 2014 and 2015. Federer was playing great heading into each of those two finals, but Djokovic stepped up and played defense which was too tough for his opponent. That version of Djokovic would beat Federer again this year, but that person is nowhere to be found. Djokovic has moved into the Eastbourne semifinals, but not by beating particularly tough players. He has not had a hugely stiff grass test heading into Wimbledon, and his blowout loss to Dominic Thiem at the French Open points to a diminished level of confidence. This is the true reason why Federer is the favorite.
Gilles Muller
The top 16 seed has arrived at his position by playing two great weeks of grass tennis. Muller won the Ricoh Open in The Netherlands and then moved to the semifinals of the Queen’s Club ATP 500 tournament a week ago. Muller has always been a threat on grass with his nasty lefty serve and his serve-and-volley game. Muller is an attacking player who will not settle into long rallies where the ball could take a bad bounce on a chewed up and worn out baseline which turns from green to brown due to the erosion of the grass surface caused by player (footwork) activity. Muller is the kind of player the top guys do not want to see in their part of the draw.
Muller was 13-5 on grass courts last season and has played well again this year, winning seven of his first eight matches so far.
Feliciano Lopez
Two grass finals in two weeks, in Stuttgart (250) and Queen’s Club (500), have reminded tennis fans and pundits why Lopez has a game made for grass. On clay and hardcourts, Lopez’s constant backhand slices don’t have nearly as much of an effect, but on the slick grass surface, they skid and stay low, depriving opponents of a wide and comfortable hitting zone. Players have to bend for Lopez’s slices on grass, and this puts them slightly out of position. Lopez can maneuver to steer points toward his advantage, and that’s how he won the Queen’s Club title over Marin Cilic. Lopez is a hot player right now, a lot like Muller. He is in his element on grass.
It’s worth noting that Lopez hasn’t traditionally played well on grass. While he’s won nine of his 10 matches on the green surface this season, he was just 2-3 last year and 3-4 the year before that. He has a little bit of momentum and might be worth investing in during the early rounds of Wimbledon.
Marin Cilic
The player who lost to Lopez in a close Queen’s final is a threat for Wimbledon. Cilic has a huge serve, and his technique on hitting groundstrokes is minimalist and efficient, which is necessary for grass success. Players with really big swings, who take their racquet far back behind their hitting point, will not time the ball well on grass due to bad bounces, but Cilic doesn’t have that problem. He should make the quarterfinals. After that remains to be seen.
Taking a look at his numbers so far this season, Cilic is 6-2 on the grass courts. That lines up just about right with his historical numbers as he was 7-3 last season and 7-3 the year before.
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