The ATP has a lot of miles to go and a lot of dramas to deal with before it gets to the 2016 Olympics Games, but if you had to evaluate the tournament right now, the men’s landscape has changed a lot in the last four years. In the 2012 Olympic Games in London, the main contenders were the big four of Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal. Fast forward to the 2016 Olympic Games and we’re likely to see a very different contest. Djokovic is now at the top of the totem poll but he’s been battling an eye injury of late. That’s not likely to keep him down too much but it is part of the equation here. As for Rafael Nadal, his body has broken down and winning any tournament – let alone the Olympics – would be an achievement for him right now. Injuries are also hampering Federer, who has knee problems that he’ll have to overcome in time for the 2016 Olympic Games. And then there is Murray, who is still good but hasn’t emerged as a dominant player just yet.
With that in mind, here are the four players with the best chances of winning a medal.
Novak Djokovic
There is reason to doubt so many things and so many people in men’s tennis. There are so many questions surrounding a lot of players and how they will make their way through the 2016 tennis season. The one player who is truly and entirely beyond questioning, however, is Novak Djokovic. He has won four of the past five Grand Slam singles titles. He won more than 30 matches in 2015 alone against players ranked in the top 10. He made the final of every tournament he entered except one, in Doha early in the year. He was a wrecking ball for the rest of the ATP Tour. A player who is this consistent and this focused – he failed to make a final in Dubai only because of an eye problem, which has since cleared up – should not be doubted. Djokovic has set the bar so much higher than his opponents that he must be viewed as the prohibitive favorite in this tournament. There’s no doubt about it, either.
Andy Murray
The player who will enter this event as the defending champion is Murray, who won the 2012 gold medal at the All-England Club and Centre Court Wimbledon against Roger Federer. However, that Olympic tournament was held on grass. This tournament in Rio won’t. However, Murray can certainly play well on any surface. His 2015 results reflect that. He is so good at playing defense and resetting points from defensive positions. He will frustrate opponents and should be able to move through the tournament as long as he doesn’t get an especially horrible draw. Murray’s consistency, shown in his ability to make yet another Australian Open final, puts him ahead of most of his competitors. He’s more likely to medal than not.
Stan Wawrinka
The player who has done so much in the latter stages of his career is a natural pick to win a medal. Wawrinka hadn’t won any really significant tennis title heading into 2014, when he was 28. Then he won his first Masters 1000, his first Grand Slam at the Australian Open, and his first Davis Cup championship. The Davis Cup was revealing in that it was an international event, not a prize-money event. Wawrinka carried Switzerland past France, and that experience of playing for one’s nation should give Wawrinka the emotional edge he’ll need. Wawrinka knows how to handle pressure. He is a third choice after Djokovic and Murray on this list.
Kei Nishikori
This is a choice which could be jeopardized by Nishikori’s constant injury issues. Nishikori is great when healthy, but he’s not always healthy. This is a frequent point of concern, and so that always has to be monitored. You don’t want to make a premature bet several months out. If Nishikori is fit, his defense and his backhand will make him a top threat to the other three players on this list. He can make a deep run in this tournament, without question.
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