The semifinals are set for the Hobart International WTA tournament. There were no surprises in the quarterfinals, so one must wonder if there will be any unexpected developments in the semifinals. Calm or chaos? That’s the question as the field is reduced to four players.
Johanna Larsson vs. Alize Cornet
Odds: Cornet -155
One of the two semifinals looks very easy to pick on paper. Alize Cornet is the seventh in the tournament and is taking on the unseeded Johanna Larsson. Larsson has been one of the tournament’s surprises so far as she upset the No. 6 seed, Barbora Strycova, in the first round in straight sets and has since gone on to topple two other unseeded players (Margarita Gasparyan and Heather Watson) in the following two rounds, needing the full three sets each time. As for Cornet, she’s had a little bit easier time of things as she defeated the unseeded Denise Allertova in the first round in three sets and Veronica Cepede Royg in the second round – also in three sets – before walking over Mona Barthel in the third round.
It’s true that Cornet is eternally unpredictable, and it would be so much in her nature to lose here. However, there’s no need to oversimplify this betting decision. Cornet didn’t merely advance to the semifinals; she won because of a walkover. One way to look at it is that Cornet wasn’t tested but the bigger factor here is that she got an extra day off. Cornet is therefore fresh and rested for this match. Larsson not only had to play a quarterfinal; she had to play three sets and come from behind to defeat Watson. When one player gets a lot more rest than another, it’s foolish except in certain circumstances to pick the rested player, assuming that most other factors are basically even. You don’t have to lay a lot of juice with Cornet here, so stick with her.
Pick: Cornet in straight sets
Eugenie Bouchard vs. Dominika Cibulkova
Odds: Bouchard -185
This is the featured semifinal match at the tournament. It’s a rematch of a U.S. Open third-round match at Louis Armstrong Stadium, won by Bouchard in a prolonged struggle. Cibulkova had and lost a set point in the first set, throwing it away with a bad mistake. Cibulkova easily could have won, and probably thinks she should have won that match. Yet, Bouchard was improved enough and tough enough to take that match away from her opponent. Bouchard, as has been mentioned a lot in recent weeks, struggled through most of 2015. She suffered a ton of losses in either the first or second match of a tournament. She could not get herself ready to impose her will on her opponents, which is what she did for almost all of 2014. She ran out of gas at the end of that season, but nobody suspected anything particularly worrisome was going to happen in 2015.
Nobody was right.
Bouchard didn’t merely have a sophomore slump last season, a natural response to everyone being more focused on beating her. It was a lot more than that. Bouchard played through some minor injuries, which was a questionable decision to begin with, but she also lost so much of the confidence and fighting spirit she had developed on the court. Playing well in tight situations had been a feature of Bouchard’s game in 2014. She saved so many break points late in sets and matches. She was stronger than opponents several years older in many cases. She did not get easily distracted.
2015 was a different story.
Bouchard simply unraveled and became a lot more anxious in important parts of matches last year. She did not fight her way through matches as she had the year before. To return to the Cibulkova match, then, it was probably the first match in several months in which Bouchard once again climbed out of trouble. She played great defense against Cibulkova, hitting to the corners with fearlessness on the big points. If she can do the same here, and play with the same relaxed mentality, she should be able to win. However, it will not be easy against a player who, like Bouchard, has also made a major final. Take Bouchard in three.
Pick: Bouchard in three sets
