After missing the Tournament last year due to the NCAA ban, the #6 SMU Mustangs are back and will match up in Tulsa on Friday afternoon against the #11 USC Trojans who earned their spot through First Four playoff, defeating the Providence Friars with 75:71. Teams are fairly evenly matched and this promises to be a good game.
Place: Bank of Oklahoma Center, Tulsa, Oklahoma
Date/Time: Friday March 17th, 2017. 03:10 PM ET
TV Coverage: truTV
#6 SMU Mustangs vs. #11 USC Trojans
LINE: SMU -6.5 (-102)
Total: 138 points (-108 over; -103 under)
SMU flying under the radar
The SMU Mustangs (30-4) have been very consistent in recent years but have failed to excite in the tournament. This is not a flashy team so it comes to no surprise that they are not talked about too much. However, the Mustangs haven’t lost a game since January 12th, winning 13 consecutive games in an impressive fashion and grabbing the AAC title.
They beat teams by fundamentals, lock down defense that allows only 59.8 points per game (3rd in NCAA) and .384 shooting percentage (7th best), taking care of the ball, team rebounding and good shot selection. They are not very deep, but the few backups that will play significant minutes keep up the defensive pressure. Offensively, they rely on Semi Ojeleye who averages 18.8 points, while as a team they score 74.5 per game. Four out of their 5 top scorers shoot above 40% from the deep, so the Mustangs ranked 6th nationally in 3PT percentage at .406 as a team.
Trojans rely on their shooting
The USC Trojans (25-9) came from behind to beat the Providence Friars 75-71 in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament Wednesday night and earn a chance in the Big Dance. This was their fourth win in the last 5 games, with the only loss to UCLA 74-76 in the PAC 12 quarterfinals. A timely string of good performances will boost their confidence as it shows that they can compete with the best.
Overall, USC is not a strong defensive team, and they have allowed over 77 points in their last nine games, 73.2 overall. USC concedes a good amount of threes as they focus on protecting the paint. They did held UCLA to only 41% shooting, but that was an ugly game where neither team could find the basket. Offensively, they are certainly capable. The Trojans scored an average of 78.7 points per game and shot 45.4% as a team. They are patient and resilient and can get back in games when they get hot from the outside.
USC has a deep team with 4 double digit scorers. The shots are equally distributed among the top 7 players. Bennie Boatwright and Chimezie Metu give them a fine outside-inside balance.
#6 SMU Mustangs vs. #11 USC Trojans Game Trends & Prediction
SMU was among the most impressive teams in ATS score this season, with 21-6. They failed to cover the spread only twice in the last two months, both times fighting large handicaps (-19 and -24). They’ve gone 16-12-1 against the over/under after a 7 overs streak that came to an end with a push in their final game against Cincinnati. However, total lines over 130 points are very rare on their games.
Southern California has gone 17-16 ATS and 16-14 against the O/U, mostly being favored in their games. They were quite streaky, connecting 4 ATS losses and then winning 4 out of 5, while also having their games go to over on five consecutive games and then going under four times in a row – all this in the last 10 games. Total lines on their matches are often above 150.
I see the Mustangs as the more complete and overall better team, but the USC have proven that they are tough to beat. The underdogs also have the experience of playing against equally tough defense of Providence that they’ve been able to figure out, so they are not without their chances. Of course, it’s a different thing to use all that energy to come back after a 6 day lay-off and to have to play another game with just one day rest (that includes the travel). The total line is set at 138, which is about right, a bit too high for SMU and a bit too low for USC. Skip it.
My Pick: SMU -6.5
Total: Pass
