The Kansas Jayhawks will play University of California Davis in the opening round on Friday evening in Tulsa. The Aggies advanced through the First Four, but are no match to their opponent. If you are looking for first round upsets, look away, as Kansas will win this one with ease. But is there some value for the money to be earned? Read on to find out.
Place: Bank of Oklahoma Center, Tulsa, Oklahoma
Date/Time: Friday March 17th, 2017. 6:50 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
#1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. #16 UC Davis Aggies
LINE: Kansas -23.5 (-106)
Total: 145.5 points (+104 over; -105 under)
Jayhawks aiming the Final Four
The Kansas Jayhawks (28-4) are ranked No. 3 in the nation, but they are no lower than No.1 in their minds. After winning 13th straight Big 12 title they surprisingly lost to the TCU Horned Frogs in the conference quarters, so they might vent their frustration on poor UC Davis in the first round. However, no team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament. On the bright side, this does mean more rest for the Jayhawks.
Bill Self has built a smooth machine with a nice mix of veteran leadership and young potential. They have gone to the Elite Eight last year, losing a close game to eventual champions Villanova, so that experience will be valuable. The Jayhawks score 82.7 points a game, allow 72.4 for a healthy +10.3 winning margin. They also fared well in close games, winning 9 games by 5 points or less. Two of their four losses came in the overtime.
This is a star loaded team. Frank Mason III and Josh Jackson (who is back after a one game suspension) lead the pack that also includes Devonte’ Graham, Mykhailiuk, Lucas and Vick. Even the backups would probably be the top dogs on UC Davis team. Mason comes into this game averaging 20.8 points per game, while also collecting 4.1 boards and handing out 5.1 assists. Jackson is second on the scorers list with 16.4 points. In addition, Jackson is collecting 7.2 boards, while handing out 3.1 assists.
Aggies promise to concede nothing
The UC Davis Aggies (23-12) have earned their place in the Dance by winning their last 4 games, including the First Four encounter with NCCU. It’s been a great month for the Aggies as they won 7 of their last 8 games, although the lone loss was by 30. They haven’t impressed in wins, muscling them out, but coach Les can be proud of their resilience.
Chima Moneke starred in the First Four with 18 points and 12 rebounds and the 6-6 forward’s performance came to no surprise. Despite his height, Moneke is among top 10 players in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. The Aggies also rely on Brynton Lemar’s outside scoring, who leads the team with 16.1 points a game. As a team, they have averaged only 70.4 points, good for 242nd in NCAA. They allow 68.7 points on .422 opponents shooting.
The Aggies scoring leader is Brynton Lemar who is putting up 16.1 points on a 42% shooting. Lemar is also pulling down 3.3 boards. Chima Moneke is averaging 14.4 points while coming up short from double-double averages for the season, as he is pulling down 9.4 boards per game.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. #16 UC Davis Aggies Game Trends & Prediction
Kansas was placed in the top 5 teams in AP poll throughout the season, so it’s no surprise that the books protected themselves against the public bets, overvaluing the popular team. As a result, the Jayhawks went only 11-18-1 against the spread. They also went 14-16 against the over/under, without any trends recently.
UC Davis covered 6 times since the beginning of their uprise (with one push) and has stringed 7 unders (with an average line of 135.5 points). This brings them to 18-12-1 ATS record and 12-18-1 in O/U market.
This will be a one sided game and the Jayhawks have a point to prove, but don’t be surprised if they already focus their minds on their next matchup as they’ll face either Miami or Michigan State. They also face the largest handicap in the first round, way larger I’d accept in this situation. Of course, the difference between teams is very large as well, so backing the Aggies is also out of question. I do believe that there’s money to be made on this matchup, as a lopsided score and an overwhelmed underdog who can score, paired with potentially half-interested smells like under.
My Pick: Pass
Total: Under 145.5 points
