The Australian Open is over, but this leaves the French Open, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open as the remaining three tennis grand slams on the calendar. Is Serena Williams going to rebound? Is Angelique Kerber going to continue to establish herself as a top women’s player? So many interesting questions to answer. Here are our projections for who will win the other three tennis grand slams this year.
French Open Pick: Maria Sharapova
The French Open has played out in patterns in recent years. On the men’s side, the pattern was Rafael Nadal winning every year but his five-year winning streak was interrupted in 2015 when Stan Wawrinka won his first Roland Garros title. On the women’s side, the pattern has been on where Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova have taken turns winning it in alternate years.
Starting in 2012, Sharapova has won this tournament in the even-numbered years, and Serena Williams has won it in the odd-numbered years. Sharapova beat Sara Errani in the 2012 final, and then Simona Halep in the 2014 final. In 2013, Serena beat Sharapova in the final, and then in 2015, Serena defeated Lucie Safarova to win another championship. It is certainly logical to pick Serena to defend her championship, but that’s not something she has regularly done at the Grand Slam tournaments of late. She won the 2014 U.S. Open but did not defend it in 2015. She didn’t defend her 2013 Roland Garros title. She won the 2015 Australian Open, but not the 2016 title. Why not pick Sharapova to rebound? Halep and Victoria Azarenka did not do well at the Australian Open. Angelique Kerber will find it hard to win two majors in a row, now that she’s a target. As for Williams, we’ve seen it many times that clay is not her best surface. She has won the French Open in two of the last three years, but prior to that, her last title at Roland Garros was way back in 2002.
Wimbledon Pick: Serena Williams
This is a contradiction of what was just said about Serena not being able to defend major tournament championships. However, she won three majors last year. The odds that she’ll defend one of them are pretty decent. Serena might get tested, depending on the draw she gets, but her serve on a grass court is very scary for everyone else who has to play against her. Serena didn’t exactly do poorly at the Australian Open; she merely played a tactically unsound championship match and paid the price against Angelique Kerber, a player who could defend really well. On grass, it would be harder for Kerber to play the same level of defense. As long as Serena doesn’t get Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals or semifinals, she should be a very easy pick for the title. Even if she does play Azarenka earlier, she should still be the favorite.
U.S. Open Pick: Serena Williams
One of the toughest losses of Serena’s career was in the 2015 U.S. Open semifinals, as the champion lost to Roberta Vinci in one of the biggest upsets tennis has seen in some time. Serena is going to be especially motivated to win the U.S. Open after missing out the previous year. She won the U.S. Open in 2014 after failing to win the previous three major tournaments that season, so if she goes into New York with only one previous major title, you can rely on her to pump herself up and rebound at the USTA National Tennis Center.
The other factor here is that she also kind of blew it at the 2016 Australian Open. Whether she didn’t play her best game, whether she didn’t take Angelique Kerber seriously or whether Kerber was just that good, Williams didn’t get the job done. The hard court surface is usually her best surface, so it would be surprising to see her go through an entire calendar year without winning a single grand slam on the hard courts (Wimbledon and the French Open are on lawn and clay). The last time she failed to win either in the same year was in 2011 and that was the first year that happened since 2006. Don’t count on it happening again.
