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Penguins vs Predators: SCF Game 4 Predictions

Penguins

Heading home down 2-0 in the Stanley Cup Final, the Nashville Predators bit back hard. Can they even up the series against the Penguins?

January 14, 2017 – NHL Schedule
Penguins vs Predators
ML +135 / -155
O/U 5.5

Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.

A quick sidebar before we delve into the Stanley Cup Final. While my family in North America was just sitting down to dinner before Game 3, I was across the Atlantic in England. I happened to be with a group seeing a show in Dalston and riding the tube back to our hotel in London at the time that a fatal attack was occurring on London Bridge. I was incredibly fortunate to have been out of town and that my hotel is located far enough away from that area as not to be in danger.

But it gave me pause. Just the night prior we saw a play at the Globe. At about the same time the incident occurred, my friends and I could have been making our way to Monument tube station, located right next to the bridge.

Timing is a curious thing.

The last thing I am trying to do here is make the story about me. I am merely musing for the sake of expressing how precious life is. My heart goes out to those affected by the incident. London is a resilient city, and life already seems to be as it was before here. But my heart bleeds for those who were there or in Borough Market that night.

Anyway. To the fun stuff.

The tube got us back to our hotel pretty late, about midnight here which is 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Ordinarily, I’d pass right out in my hotel. But I decided to stay up. I needed something to get my mind off the periodic wailing of sirens passing by my hotel, and I was dying to know what a Stanley Cup Final game in Nashville looked like.

I fired up my laptop. I was not disappointed.

The atmosphere in the building was unreal. Pictures of Nashville city streets flooded with yellow jerseys flooded Twitter. Decibel levels were through the roof. When you’re an objective observer, how can you not love a city falling so deeply in love with its team? Especially when the state that city resides in has never hosted a professional sports championship with one of their own teams as the participant?

Remember how everyone fell in love with Tony X from St. Louis last season? This is kind of like that, just with 684,410 Tony Xs in a city.

Jake Guentzel struck first in the game for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Less than three minutes into the game, Ian Cole rifled a slapshot that was initially saved by Pekka Rinne. Guentzel pounced on the loose puck and slipped it through Rinne’s five-hole as he fell to the ground.

For about 26 minutes, it looked like Game 3 was headed in the same direction as the previous two. Nashville was controlling possession and firing shots on goal, but the Penguins were ahead on the scoreboard and threatening with a couple of powerplay opportunities.

Roman Josi would give Nashville reason to roar.

With Justin Schultz in the box for holding, the Predators spread the puck around with their umbrella set-up high in the zone. Calle Jarnkrok hit Roman Josi with a daring cross-slot pass, which Josi was able to field and fire. It deflected off the glove of Carter Rowney and found twine.

Just 42 seconds later, Frederick Gaudreau corralled a flip pass in the neutral zone from Austin Watson and broke into the zone. One-on-one with Cole, unleashed a wicked wrister. Just like that, the Predators had a 2-1 lead.

As time ticked away at the end of the second period, Roman Josi’s stick snapped on a slapshot attempt. Viktor Arvidsson picked up the loose puck behind the net and spun off a defender. He blindly poked it to the post where James Neal swooped in and banged it home.

End of two. 3-1.

Two-goal leads are notorious in hockey. Nashville needed something to ice the game in the final frame. They got it less than five minutes in.

Chris Kunitz was cutting laterally along the blueline looking to carry the puck into the attacking zone for the Penguins. A miscommunication forced him into his own man and jarred the puck loose. Craig Smith picked it up for the Preds and saw daylight. Charging ahead he snapped a wrister under the glove of Matt Murray.

The arena erupted into perhaps their loudest cheer of the night. The man who spent three weeks on the shelf to come back for the Final netted his first goal of the playoffs.

For good measure, Mattias Ekholm would tack on a powerplay goal later in the third.

After a slew of physical exchanges and the levying of several game misconducts (Patric Hornqvist, Chris Kunitz and Matt Cullen for Pittsburgh, Ekholm and Austin Watson for Nashville), the game ended with Nashville on top 5-1.

I adore P.K. Subban. I do. And he got into it with Sidney Crosby on the ice after promising to do so, which was cool. And he joked about how Crosby insulted his breath after the game, which was funny. Former NHLer John Scott called Subban “a piece of garbage” when on the ice, a cocky hot-shot (this was highlighted in the E:60 special on Subban).

Yeah. I see it. He’s in-your-face. A smack talker. A big celly-er. Hardly a crime. He’s just one of those opponents that people love to shut up, and when they can’t it’s frustrating.

Game 3 was still a stickhandling clinic put on by both teams. Sidney Crosby’s work down low is always incredible to watch, though between he and Evgeni Malkin, they had exactly zero shots on goal. Crosby had just one shot attempt that was blocked. Not good enough.

Filip Forsberg had just one shot and no points, but dang did he go to work on the penalty kill.

Special teams have been a major source of pride for the the Predators. They are 4-for-10 on the man advantage while holding the Penguins to 1-for-12 in the series.

In the big picture, Game 3 was far from catastrophic for the Pittsburgh Penguins. The possibility of a four-game sweep was farfetched anyway. The worst case scenario is a tied series with two of the final three games being in Pittsburgh. Best case scenario? The Pens win Game 4 on the road and have a chance to clinch the Stanley Cup at home.

Those are still sweet odds.

Sidney Crosby has not scored in 12 Final games. He has one goal in his last 19 games. It’s clear at this point that he doesn’t need to be the guy scoring the goal to be “The Man.” A goal would be nice but it’s not required for success. Zero shots is unacceptable at this point. Same goes for Malkin. That needs to change.

Nick Bonino sat out Game 3 with a foot injury. Carl Hagelin took his place in the lineup. Word is that Bonino has rejoined the team for practice but his status is still up in the air. My guess is that he will sit out Game 4 and be ready to roll at home. Even if he does play tonight, he likely will not make too much of an impact. Speed is Bonino’s biggest weapon. To have that hindered neuters him.

Pekka Rinne had a huge bounce-back game. He didn’t need to be incredible but he stopped 27 of 28 shots on goal.

Even though they dominated, the Predators still got off to an inauspicious start in the opening few minutes allowing a goal and taking an early penalty. Now that the jitters are out of the way, they may be even more dangerous from the get-go.

On the other hand, it’s hard to get Sidney Crosby and company to shake in their boots. Tonight is going to be one fierce contest.

One thing is for sure: play the over.

Prediction: Since I took Nashville in six, I’m going with them to win tonight and even up the series. Play the over.

To make a play on the Stanley Cup Final, visit our sports book at https://www.betdsi.eu/gms-hockey.

Written by Casey Bryant

Casey is GetMoreSports' resident hockey fanatic and host of "Jersey Corner" on the GMS YouTube channel. He is the play-by-play voice of Marist College Hockey and the New York AppleCore. He currently works as a traffic coordinator for MSG Networks. Steve Valiquette once held a bathroom door for him.

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