AFC Conference Championship: Odds, Previews and Pick

The two best teams in the AFC will meet up on Sunday in what figures to be a classy AFC Conference Championship game. The New England Patriots represent the old guard as Tom Brady will be playing in his eighth straight title game. As for the Chiefs, they emerged as the top team in the conference this season under Patrick Mahomes, who is among the favorites to win the league’s MVP award. He’s thrown for 50 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards, and represents the future — and present — of the conference.

New England Patriots    +3            +143       un 55½
Kansas City Chiefs           -3            -164        un 55½

Odds Provided by BetDSI.eu

These two teams met in the regular season and the Patriots won by the narrowest of margins. Can the Chiefs get revenge in the rematch?

Related: NFL Betting Guide

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Sunday January 20th, 2019 – 6:40 PM ET

Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

Line: Kansas City -3

The Patriots edged out Kansas City in the regular season with a, 43-40, win at Gillette Stadium in Week 6 but the Chiefs made a number of mistakes that they can clean up. They had two turnovers (to just one for the Patriots), were 2-for-5 in the red zone (compared to 4-for-6 for the Patriots) and had five penalties for 58 yards (compared to none for the Patriots).

The stakes will be much higher this time around but home-field advantage could be a huge difference. The Patriots were a perfect 9-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by 105 points. However, they were just 3-5 when they had to play on the road and were a -19 in terms of point differential. As for the Chiefs, home-field advantage has been key to their defensive success as they allow just 17.4 points per game at home, which is better than the Baltimore Ravens and just 0.1 points worse than the Chicago Bears. It’s been on the road where they’ve been a mess, giving up 34.6 points per game. The Patriots defense is similar as they allow 17.9 at home compared to 24.0 on the road. That’s a 23.3 point difference when you do the math for both defenses.

The Patriots are listed as underdogs for just the seventh time ever under Bill Belichick and they are 3-3 against the spread in the previous six instances. Look for the Chiefs to get revenge in this one.

Pick: Chiefs -3

AFC Championship Game Total

Over-Under Odds: 55.5

Considering these teams combined for 83 points in the first meeting, the snap reaction is going to be that they should be able to get over 55.5 the second time around. However, weather might factor into the outcome and you can see that the sharp bettors agree early on. This total opened up at 57.5 but is already down to 55.5. ESPN’s Adam Schefter has suggested that the teams will have to brace for some very frigid temperatures at about 10 degrees and below along with snow. That should lead us to an under in this spot.

Pick: Under 57.5

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About Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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AFC Conference Championship: Odds, Previews and Pick
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AFC Conference Championship: Odds, Previews and Pick
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AFC Conference Championship: Odds, Previews and Pick
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GetMoreSports.com
GetMoreSports

About Geoff Harvey

mm
Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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