Myles Garrett set the single-season sack record last year, but ESPN’s statistical model forecasts Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson as the projected sack leader for 2026 with a mean of 12.5 sacks. Garrett’s record and the model’s output were both noted in ESPN’s recent projections.
The forecast is the sixth consecutive annual sack projection produced by the model. Inputs include sack totals and rates from each player’s past two seasons; projected snaps from ESPN’s Mike Clay; a pass-rush win rate metric based on NFL Next Gen Stats; opposing quarterbacks’ past sack rates; team win totals from the betting market; player alignment and age. Only defensive linemen and edge rushers are included, and rookies are excluded. The analysis uses the legacy version of the pass-rush win-rate metric; future projections will incorporate a recent upgrade.
Hutchinson’s projection follows a 2025 season in which he had 14.5 sacks. ESPN notes Hutchinson has led the outlet’s projections two years running despite never leading the league in actual sacks. Playing time is a major factor: Hutchinson was on the field for 91% of Detroit’s defensive snaps in 2025, a much higher rate than several other top rushers. ESPN also cites the Lions’ team strength — eighth in ESPN’s Football Power Index — and what FPI lists as the second-easiest schedule as contributors to his forecast.
Green Bay’s Micah Parsons is projected to finish second with a mean of 11.1 sacks after totaling 12.5 in 2025. ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Parsons to play 619 snaps in 2026, down from 669 snaps across 14 games in 2025. ESPN’s write-up notes Parsons had a better pass-rush win rate than Garrett in each of the past two seasons, produced more sacks per game two years ago, is more than three years younger and plays on a team that blitzes more.
Houston’s Will Anderson Jr. is third in the projections with a mean of 10.5 sacks; he had 12 sacks in 2025, according to ESPN. The projections are presented as mean outcomes that incorporate the probability of injury; ESPN emphasizes that guaranteed health for every player would raise individual forecasts.
