The Kentucky Wildcats (22-10, 11-8 SEC) challenge the Alabama Crimson Tide (19-14, 10-10 SEC) in the Southeastern Conference Tourney at Scottrade Center. The game will air on ESPN at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 10, 2018.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats Free Prediction
In the Crimson Tide’s last outing, they blew out the No. 16 Auburn Tigers, 81-63. The Crimson Tide had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.404 (above their season average of 0.278) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.577 (above their season average of 0.516). Alabama rallied around Collin Sexton, who was the top scorer from either team with 31 points on 10-for-16 shooting.
The Wildcats defeated the Georgia Bulldogs in their last outing, 62-49. Kentucky’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Georgia. The Wildcats had a rate of 7.1 (better than their season average of 16.3), while the Bulldogs posted a mark of 15.0. With 15 points and nine assists, Kentucky’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a good outing.
Look for Kentucky to dominate the offensive glass in this meeting. The Wildcats currently rank eighth in offensive rebounding percentage (36.0 percent), while Alabama ranks 281st in defensive rebounding percentage (69.0 percent).
Alabama holds records of 19-14 straight up (SU) and 16-14-1 against the spread (ATS). Of the Crimson Tide’s 30 games that accepted bets, 20 have finished under the O/U total.
Kentucky is 22-10 SU, but they struggle covering the spread (13-17-1 ATS). Contrary to Alabama, games including the Wildcats have typically finished over the projected point total (60.0 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Sexton (20.8 points and 4.6 assists) has been stellar for the Crimson Tide while Gilgeous-Alexander (14.4 points and 6.6 assists) has contributed greatly to the Wildcats.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Donta Hall recorded 16 points and six rebounds in the first game, in which the Crimson Tide lost 81-71, unable to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 152 points, which was 9.5 points above the projected point total of 142.5 points. The Wildcats had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (52.6 vs. 27.3) and had a better free throw rate (0.328 vs. 0.236).
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats Free Pick
Free Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Alabama, ATS Winner – Alabama, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Kentucky ranks 21st in rebounds per game (39.2) while Alabama ranks 208th in rebounds allowed per game (36.4).
The Crimson Tide average 5.5 blocks per game, which ranks 10th in the NCAA. The Wildcats rank 172nd in blocks allowed per game (3.8).
Alabama ranks 161st in three pointers allowed per game (21.8) while Kentucky ranks 289th (25.6).
The Crimson Tide rank 39th in assists allowed per game (11.4) while the Wildcats rank 125th (13.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Alabama is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Kentucky is 4-1 ATS with 5 overs over their last five games.
The Crimson Tide have been outscored by an average of 1.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Alabama has defeated opponents by an average of 3.2 points.
During their last five games, the Wildcats have scored an average of 79.8 points per game (3.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 69.0 points per game (1.5 below their season average).
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