After pulling off an improbable series win over the Cleveland Indians, the New York Yankees will face off against the Houston Astros in what will be a power pitching versus power hitting matchup. Although the Astros won 101 games while the Yankees won 91 games, the true talent levels of these two teams are much closer than their records indicate. In fact, the Yankees had a higher run differential than the Astros – +198 vs. +196. In terms of starting pitchers, the Yankees will roll with Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, and CC Sabathia; the Astros will go with Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton.
Why The Yankees Might Win The Series
The Yankees aren’t expected to be here. In fact, they’re probably a year or two early. The Yankees are riding high after their near-impossible comeback against the team everyone pegged as favorites to win the World Series. The Yankees’ strength is largely dependent on their bullpen. Led by Aroldis Chapman (100.4 mph average velocity), the Yankees’ bullpen features an abundance of hard throwers – Dellin Betances (97.8 mph), Tommy Kahnle (97.6 mph), and Chad Green (96.6 mph). The Astros will certainly have their hands full if the Yankees hold a lead or the game is tied when the Yankees’ bullpen comes in to the game. Additionally, this list doesn’t even include Dave Robertson or Adam Warren. Although the Yankees’ starting pitchers are relatively pedestrian when compared to the Astros, their bullpen guys should all be able to come in and fire for multiple innings, if needed. The Yankees were also able to survive and advance against the Indians without the services of Aaron Judge, who went a combined 1-20 with 16 strikeouts in the five-game series, which, by the way, set another strikeout record. The Yankees have to hope that Judge has gone through his lowest point. If the Judge can snap out of his funk, the Yankees will be tough to handle.
Why The Astros Might Win The Series
Although the Yankees’ bullpen consists of fireball arms, the Astros should be perfectly fine at handling this. In fact, the Astros not only led the league in batting average and isolated power against power pitching, they also possessed the lowest strikeout rate. Against fastballs, the Astros slashed .301/.373/.525 – the best in the league as well. In their series against the Boston Red Sox, the Astros hit .333 with eight home runs in four games – their offense is clearly in a groove. Here are the Astros top fastball hitters:
- Marwin Gonzalez – .361/.422/.664
- Jose Altuve – .362/.439/.605
- George Springer – .324/.413/.604
- Carlos Correa – .329/.409/.590
Furthermore, against fastballs exceeding 95 mph, the Astros slashed .280/.357/.467. Adding insult to injury, the Astros also had the best wOBA and lowest strikeout rate against off-speed pitches in the league. Wow. While you could easily make the argument that the Yankees’ bullpen is superior, this claim might be a bit far-fetched considering just how well the Astros’ hitters performed against fastballs this season. The Astros have the much more superior starting rotation as well as potential MVP, Jose Altuve. Altuve destroyed the Red Sox in the previous series and with seemingly no holes in his strike zone, the Yankees’ best bet will be to try and get ahead of the count against Altuve.
Outlook
The Yankees seem like the perfect opponent for the Astros, with the Astros’ ability to nullify the power pitching of any team, especially when the Yankees depend so heavily upon their high-heat-throwing bullpen. If, and when, the Yankees’ starters get in trouble, how effective will their bullpen really be against this Astros’ lineup. Additionally, the Astros boast a stronger lineup than the Indians as well as balance in starting pitching. The Astros are just too talented and too deep – they’ll head to the World Series in what should be an electrifying November. Taking a look at the series price, the Astros are laying -180, which is a bit high. However, we like that price because they have significant edges in this spot. That’s why it’s worth the price of the juice here, so take the Astros.
Pick: Astros -180
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