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Home » Blog » Assessing early overreactions to the 2026 NBA offseason
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Assessing early overreactions to the 2026 NBA offseason

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Last updated: July 7, 2026 8:00 am
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There is a familiar pattern in the NBA offseason: the bigger the trade, the bigger the overreaction. With a thin free-agent class and limited cap flexibility, this summer has been defined by blockbuster deals. According to ESPN, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant, Paul George and Julius Randle were all traded in the stretch after July 4, and those seven players account for a combined 37 All-Star appearances.

One of the most heated responses centered on Boston’s decision to send 2024 Finals MVP Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers for Paul George and draft picks. The move prompted confusion and frustration aimed at the club’s analytics staff and ownership group led by Bill Chisholm. According to ESPN, the prevailing verdict among some observers was that the Celtics were no longer legitimate title contenders.

That judgment is labeled an overreaction in the aftermath. According to ESPN, Chisholm paid a then-record $6.1 billion for the Celtics in 2025, and after a 2024 title and nearly a decade of competitiveness, fans reasonably expect continued investment. Brown’s exit is also part of a multiyear reshaping of the 2024 roster: Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, Jrue Holiday and Luke Kornet have departed since last summer.

Financial realities of the NBA’s “apron” era — with steep penalties and restrictions for the league’s highest-spending teams — help explain the moves. According to ESPN, Boston’s strategy of shedding expensive veterans and emphasizing younger, cost-controlled pieces while Jayson Tatum recovered from an Achilles injury did not produce a falloff in results; the Celtics finished second in the Eastern Conference in 2025-26, the same place they occupied the prior season.

Value became a crucial factor in 2025-26. According to ESPN, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Hugo Gonzalez and Baylor Scheierman emerged as cost-effective difference-makers, while contenders such as the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs benefited from key players on team-friendly rookie deals. Even teams that won with veteran-laden lineups faced limits: the New York Knicks, 2026 champions, were ordered by owner James Dolan to avoid the second apron this summer.

Salary math also informed Boston’s calculus. According to ESPN, Brown was slated to earn $57.1 million and George $54.1 million in 2026-27, meaning a primary financial gain for the Celtics was keeping Brown’s next extension off the books. Brown turns 30 in October, and the concern was that committing massive extensions to second-tier stars would leave the club little flexibility to assemble a title-ready rotation or to respond if Tatum or Brown suffered injury or decline.

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