The Atlanta Braves are making a road trip to Miami to take on their division foe Marlins at Marlins Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will televise the matchup and the game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Atlanta (-140) is the favorite over Miami (+130) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this game at eight runs (-115 for the under and -105 for the over). The game’s runline odds stand at +105 for taking the Braves -1.5 runs and -125 for the Marlins +1.5.
The Braves are 53-43 SU and are 50-44 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 15.3 units for moneyline bettors and 3.1 units ATS. Atlanta is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 43-58 SU and 55-45 ATS. The team’s gained 6.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 0.1 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Miami games have an over/under record of 51-47-2 in 2018. The Braves have an over/under record of 46-44-4.
Sean Newcomb will get the start for the visiting Braves. The southpaw Newcomb is 8-5 with a 3.51 ERA and 97 strikeouts. He’s 2-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 0.75 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).
The Marlins are going with righty Jose Urena (2-9, 4.39 ERA), who has 89 strikeouts and 28 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.22. Urena is 0-2 with seven strikeouts and a 5.25 ERA across two starts against Atlanta this year.
Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game and its starters own a 3.60 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 8.73 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.28, along with a K-per-9 of 9.04.
The Braves offense has slashed .260/.329/.421 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Outfielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman continue to lead Atlanta’s offense. Markakis is hitting .322/.386/.483 with 10 home runs, 62 RBIs and 55 runs scored. Freeman has a .315 average with 16 homers, 64 RBIs and 60 runs scored.
For the home team, Miami’s pitching staff has allowed 5.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have a 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.94 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In 32 games against divisional opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.28 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.75.
The Miami offense has put up 3.9 runs per outing, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .250/.314/.378 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.
The Marlins’ offense has been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .290/.335/.403 with seven home runs, 37 RBIs and 59 runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .282/.360/.418 with eight homers, 49 RBIs and 56 runs scored.
The Braves have gained 11.3 units and are 37-30 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 31 of those games, compared to 32 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 0.7 units and are 17-9 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 13 of those games, as opposed to 13 which went under the total.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Trends
The over has cashed in three of Atlanta’s last seven outings.
Atlanta has recorded 22.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 20.8 over its last five.
The Braves have hit five home runs in their last 10 games, including three over their last five.
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