Julio Teheran (5-4, 4.94 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (38-41) meet Kevin Correia (0-2, 3.60 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (27-54) in the first of a three-game division series at Turner Field. The game gets underway at 7:35 p.m. ET on Friday, Jul. 3 and will air on CSN-PHI and FSN-S.
Teheran is 3-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 0.87 WHIP against the Phillies in his career. Cameron Maybin (.281, 31 Rs, 6 HRs, 37 RBIs, 14 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Braves, Correia is 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA. He meets a strong Atlanta offense that’s batting .255. Ben Revere (.289, 43 Rs, 1 HR, 21 RBIs, 19 SBs) went 1 for 1 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Atlanta, a -171 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Philadelphia. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. The Braves perform well as a favorite with a 10-6 record and have an overall money line of +279. They have an SU record of 18-20 against teams in their division and a 5-4 record when they were the favorite in those games. Atlanta has averaged 2.2 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 4.0. They typically aren’t overmatched by pitchers, leading the NL with an average of only 6.8 strikeouts per game.
On the other side, the Phillies have a subpar record of 24-47 when they are the underdog and are -1,768 overall with the money line. Against teams in their division, they are 11-23 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 10-22 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 5.7 runs per game, above their 3.4 season average. The Phillies average just 7.0 strikeouts per game, one of the lowest marks in the NL. Playing against NL East foes really brings the best out of the Philadelphia pitchers. They allow 4.3 runs per game against teams within their division, which is lower than their season average of 5.0.
The Braves will take on a right-hander (Correia) in this game and have a 32-35 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Phillies will be the right-hander Teheran. Right-handed starters have been a big issue for them as they sport records of 7-23 on the road and 22-43 overall.
Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, O/U – Over
Notes
The Phillies lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Braves are 15-12. The Phillies are 9-15 in close games this season.
The Braves and the Phillies are both 2-5 in games that go into extra innings.
The Phillies managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Braves who are heading in with a 14-11 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Phillies are 8-42. The Braves have a 6-27 record when opponents outhit them.
Atlanta ranks at the bottom of the league when it comes to home runs, hitting 47 this season. Philadelphia ranks near the bottom at 29th with 50.
Ranking 14th, Philadelphia is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.21 per game. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.71.
Atlanta and Philadelphia both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Atlanta sits at 24th with an OPS of .681 and Philadelphia ranks 28th with an OPS of .655.
When the Phillies allow at least one home run, they are 12-35, well-matched with the Braves who are 13-27 when allowing at least one homer.
