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Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Free Pick 09/11/18

Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves are ready to square off against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park. Fox Sports Southeast will televise this NL matchup and the game gets underway at 10:15 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants Odds

Atlanta (-135) is coming into this one as the favorite over San Francisco (+125) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 7.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -110 for both the over and the under. Gamblers can also bet on the game’s spread with the runline odds coming in at Braves -1.5 runs (+110) and Giants +1.5 runs (-130).

The Giants are 78-66 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 68-77 straight up (SU). The team hasn’t moved the needle much for gamblers, losing 1.0 units for moneyline bettors while earning 8.5 units (ATS). San Francisco has covered the spread just twice in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Braves have gone 80-64 SU this year and are 73-69 ATS. Overall, the team’s accumulated 17.4 units for gamblers taking the moneyline, but have lost 0.1 units ATS. Atlanta is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has cashed in six of those seven.

San Francisco games have an over/under record of 61-77-6 in 2018. The Braves have an over/under record of 68-68-6.

Mike Foltynewicz is getting the start for the visiting Braves. The right-handed Foltynewicz (10-9, 2.75 ERA) has racked up 179 strikeouts in 157 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 10.80 ERA against San Francisco this year.

The Giants are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Andrew Suarez (6-10, 4.33 ERA), who has 118 strikeouts and 36 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.27. Suarez is 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA in one start against Atlanta this year.

As a unit, San Francisco’s pitchers have given up 4.3 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.01, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.2. The bullpen has a 3.66 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.8 K/9.

The San Francisco hitters have put up 3.8 runs per contest, including 3.1 per game over its last 10 games and 2.4 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .199/.237/.311 over its last five contests and is 0-5 SU during that span.

The Giants’ batters have been led by right fielder Andrew McCutchen and shortstop Brandon Crawford. McCutchen is slashing .255/.357/.415 with 15 home runs, 55 RBIs, 65 runs and 13 steals, and Crawford’s line is .258/.325/.398 with 12 homers, 50 RBIs and 56 runs.

For the visiting squad, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.64 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.07, along with a WHIP of 1.22 and a K-per-9 of 8.96.

The Braves offense has slashed .260/.327/.426 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game this season, including 4.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).

Right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman continue to lead Atlanta’s hitters. Markakis is slashing .307/.371/.460 with 14 home runs, 88 RBIs and 74 runs scored, while Freeman is hitting .308/.388/.504 with 21 homers, 84 RBIs and 89 runs scored.

The Braves have lost 3.3 units and are 17-24 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 22 of those games, compared to 18 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Giants have lost 1.9 units and are 47-41 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 35 of those games, compared to 49 that’ve gone under.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The over has hit in six of Atlanta’s last seven outings.

The Giants have lost 10 of their last 11 games SU.

Atlanta has posted 22.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 25.2 over its last five.

The Braves have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.

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