The NFL’s third-leading receiver, Julio Jones (1,169 yards, 5 TDs), will be on display when the Atlanta Falcons play the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay (9-3) and Atlanta (5-7) enter this week’s game headed opposite ways. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday and can be seen on ESPN.
Green Bay notched a win over New England 26-21 last week. Aaron Rodgers had a big game through the air in the win, completing 24 of 38 pass attempts for 368 yards and two TDs. Eddie Lacy added 98 yards on 21 attempts. Atlanta was victorious last week as well, defeating Arizona 29-18. Jones had a huge game for the Falcons, pulling in 10 receptions for 189 yards and one TD. Harry Douglas also had a great game with 116 yards on nine catches.
Green Bay is a heavy 11-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 56 points. Heading into Week 14 of league action, the Packers are 9-3 Straight Up (SU) and 7-4-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last five games, the Packers have records of 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. They are lighting up the scoreboard so far this season with an average of 31.7 points per game, second-best in the league. Judging from past Falcons games this season, expect to see a heavy dose of the Packers passing game. The Falcons currently rank 32nd in the NFL with 284.3 passing yards allowed per game. During their last five games, the Packers have done a better job of keeping their opponents from running the ball. They gave up an average of only 110.6 rushing yards over that period of time, less than their 132.2 season average. It is critical for the Falcons to prepare for Green Bay’s big-play defense. The Packers rank fourth in the league with 1.2 interceptions per game. The Packers make it hard on their opponents right from the first whistle. In the first 15 minutes, Green Bay averages 10.6 points, more than any other team in the league. Expect calls against Green Bay to be a rare occurrence on game day. The Packers are one of the least penalized teams in the league when playing at home (fourth). They average just 36.3 penalty yards per game.
In the other locker room, the Falcons have a record of 5-7 both ATS and SU. The Falcons went 3-2 both SU and ATS over the last five games. The Falcons rely heavily on their air attack on the road, averaging 41.7 passing attempts per road game. During their last five games, the Falcons have done a better job of keeping their opponents off the scoreboard. Their average of allowing 24.9 PPG has fallen since they’ve only given up an average of 20 over their last five. The Atlanta run defense has given teams nightmares during those games. During that time, opponents have gained an average of only 91.0 rushing yards against this intimidating unit. Green Bay’s special teams has given up some big plays home, possibly enticing the Falcons to work a little extra on the return game. The Packers allow 125.7 return yards per home game, ranking 30th in the NFL.
Predictions: SU Winner – GB, ATS Winner – GB, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay’s last 9 games.
Atlanta is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games.
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games.
Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 6 games at home.
Atlanta is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road.
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta.
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.
Green Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta.
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay.
Green Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 4-3 SU when leading at the half this season. Green Bay is 8-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Atlanta is 5-3 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Green Bay is 9-0 SU when leading after three quarters.
Atlanta is 5-3 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle this season, and 0-3 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Green Bay passing attack is ranked eighth in the league, while the Atlanta pass defense is only ranked 32nd. The Falcons’ passing game is ranked sixth, compared to the 11th-ranked pass defense of the Packers.
The Green Bay offensive ground attack is ranked 19th in the league, while the Atlanta rush defense is only ranked 21st. The Falcons’ rushing game is ranked 25th, compared to the 29th-ranked run defense of the Packers.
Atlanta has allowed 26.3 points per game on the road, which is ranked 19th in the league. Green Bay has put up 40.8 points per game at home (ranked first overall).
Green Bay has given up 22.2 points per contest this year, which is ranked 15th in the league. Atlanta has scored 24.2 points per contest this year and is ranked 12th overall.
