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ATP Wimbledon: What We Learned In The First Week

wimbledon

The Wimbledon men’s singles tournament was uneventful in the first week. The high seeds moved through with very few hiccups, setting up a second week in which the top players should play each other. From this lack of chaos – which is the complete opposite of the women’s tournament – what should be expected in week two beginning on Monday?

Rafael Nadal Is The Best Player

It is not something anyone expected, but it is exactly what has happened at The All England Club: Rafael Nadal, who hasn’t gotten past the Wimbledon fourth round since 2011, is in the fourth round now… and looks likely to make the final on Sunday, July 16. The top half of the draw, in which he is located, is very soft. Andy Murray is not physically 100 percent fit. Nadal’s biggest challenge might be Marin Cilic in the semifinals. The courts are dry due to very hot temperatures and a lack of rain in England during the tournament, and that is slowing the playing surface in a way which makes the courts more like the clay courts Nadal routinely dominates. Everything about this tournament is lining up in Nadal’s favor. Do not be  surprised at all if he is the one lifting the trophy in a week.

Federer Is Not In Top Form, But It’s Not An Unexplained Event

Roger Federer has not looked all that convincing in week one, but it’s not as though his tennis is shockingly poor. Federer has, by most accounts from people who are on site at The All England Club, a cold. Federer said in a press conference on Saturday, following his third-round win over Mischa Zverev, that he is feeling a lot better than he did earlier last week, and that he should feel completely better on Monday, when he takes the court in a fourth-round match against Grigor Dimitrov. If Federer really is all the way back in terms of health on Monday, he should be able to make the semifinals for a likely date against Novak Djokovic. If Federer is not 100 percent, Dimitrov or (in the quarterfinals) Alexander Zverev or Milos Raonic could push him to five sets. It’s not worth panicking about Federer, but some tests will await him.

Novak Djokovic Will Make The Semifinals

Djokovic’s form and prospects were highly questioned – and questionable – entering Wimbledon, but the fourth round brings Adrian Mannarino, a dream opponent who has never made a major quarterfinal and who has played very long matches in the first week. Djokovic has virtually no chance of losing that match. He could meet Dominic Thiem – who beat him at the French Open – in the quarterfinals, but Thiem is very uncomfortable on grass, since his aggressive shots are often erratic due to the unnatural bounce of the ball on grass and the unreliable footing on the surface. Djokovic should be playing next Friday in the semifinals.

Andy Murray Needs Marin Cilic To Beat Nadal In The Quarterfinals

Murray is in no shape to beat Nadal should the two meet in the semifinals. At least, that’s what we’ve seen so far. It’s been that way in tennis overall this season and the same thing appears to be the case at Wimbledon. Murray hasn’t really struggled – two of his three wins were in straight sets – but he’s played now one. And losing a set to Fabio Fognini has to be a bit of a concern.

Nadal is playing at a much higher level. Remember that he’s riding a big wave of momentum after cashing in at the 2017 French Open. He hasn’t been slowed down by anyone at Wimbledon as he’s won all three of his matches in straight sets. Murray needs Cilic to beat Nadal if he is going to reach the final and defend his 2016 Wimbledon title. That seems unlikely. Cilic has played well so far, though, as he also has yet to drop a set. He’s the No. 7 seed at this tournament and is a decent player. However, he would need to have the perfect day to pull this type of a stunner and oust Nadal.

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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