It’s a day that ends with “y” so the Cleveland Browns‘ quarterback situation is unsettled. The DeShone Kizer experiment ended after Cleveland’s winless 2017 season, leading the Browns to select Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield with the first overall pick.
Welcome to Cleveland, @bakermayfield!https://t.co/bbrD5FV7Ye pic.twitter.com/Jhk6ZpUPGL
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) April 27, 2018
Mayfield won the Heisman Trophy before vaulting over presumed top pick Sam Darnold. Though Mayfield must deal with the pressure that comes with being the newest savior of the worst team in football, he has a ceiling that is drawing comparisons to the NFL’s elite signal-callers. But how much can he realistically achieve with the 2018 Browns? How long do we wait before trusting him? Unfortunately, probably not any time soon.
Reasons to Get Excited
Weapons
There hasn’t been much to envy in Cleveland lately, but their receivers are trending upward. The addition of Jarvis Landry is huge. A full season from Josh Gordon would be welcome.
This is part of what Baker Mayfield was referring to when he said he has “never seen anything like” Josh Gordon: pic.twitter.com/5AWF7Yhe5h
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) June 7, 2018
Not to mention Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson and David Njoku, who could all break out. If Mayfield wins the quarterback competition, he’ll have plenty of talent to help him succeed.
Rushing
Mayfield has drawn comparisons to Russell Wilson. He has good mobility and scored 13 rushing touchdowns in three seasons with the Sooners. Wilson, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson were all fantasy assets as rookies thanks in large part to their ability to make things happen on the ground. Mayfield could follow in their footsteps.
Todd Haley
Over the last decade, few offensive coordinators have had more fantasy success than Haley. Sure, he flamed out as Kansas City’s head coach, but his quarterbacks with Arizona and Pittsburgh were among the best in the league when healthy. Learning from the coach who helped Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger do some of their best work should do wonders for Mayfield.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Depth Chart
Now for the elephant in the room: we don’t know when, or even if, Mayfield will be the starter in 2018. The Browns also brought in Tyrod Taylor and have Drew Stanton on the roster. Obviously, the plan is for Mayfield to take over at some point, but there’s no telling when that will be. If the Browns turn out to be surprisingly competitive with Taylor at the helm, we may not see Mayfield take his first snaps until 2019.
Cleveland History
Cleveland’s offense has had a dismal century, but let’s just stick to the Hue Jackson era for now. Cleveland quarterbacks have a total of two 300-yard games in the last two seasons. Cody Kessler and Josh McCown each did it in October 2016 and that was it. The Browns’ starting quarterback will not be leading a typically high-powered offense.
Small, Spread Quarterback
For years, scouts have knocked quarterbacks who were small or played in spread offenses. Mayfield checks both boxes. Some in each camp have managed to start from day one, but they were anomalies. It’s more likely Mayfield takes a bit longer to adjust to the new offense. That adds to the theory that Cleveland could wait to give Mayfield his first reps.
Conclusion
There are scenarios where drafting Mayfield would make sense. He’s obviously useful in dynasty but is also worth a late look in best-ball and 2QB/Superflex leagues. But make no mistake: this is a lottery ticket. And even if it hits, what is his ceiling as a rookie? A mid-range QB2 in a 12-team league? It shouldn’t be hard to find someone like that on the waiver wire. Pass for now, but keep an eye on him so he can be properly rated a year from now.
