Orioles vs Red Sox
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Free Preview 05/19/18

The Baltimore Orioles will be squaring off against their divisional rival Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will broadcast the matchup.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Odds

Boston (-190) is the favorite against Baltimore (+180) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at 9.5 runs (-120 for the under and +100 for the over). The game’s current runline odds stand at -125 for betting the Orioles +1.5 runs and +105 for the Red Sox -1.5 runs.

The Red Sox are 30-15 SU and 21-22 ATS. The team’s gained 8.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 1.9 units against the spread (ATS). Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Orioles are 14-30 SU and have gone 17-25 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 15.7 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in the season’s early going and 8.6 units ATS. Baltimorehas covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Boston games have an over/under record of 21-21-1 so far in 2018. The Orioles have an over/under record of 20-21-1.

Dylan Bundy will get the start for the visiting Orioles. The right-handed Bundy is 2-5 with a 4.53 ERA and 55 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with six strikeouts and a 1.59 ERA against Boston this year (five starts).

The Red Sox will turn to righty Rick Porcello (5-1, 3.28 ERA) to the mound. Porcello has 54 strikeouts and eight walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.01. Porcello hasn’t faced the Orioles yet this year, but he made three starts against them in 2017, putting together a 0-3 record with a 4.86 ERA and 16 strikeouts.

Boston’s pitching staff has allowed 3.9 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have a 3.71 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 27 games against AL East opponents, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.37 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.72.

Boston’s hitters have put up 5.4 runs per contest, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .290/.332/.489 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Red Sox batters have been led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Betts is hitting .371/.443/.761 with 14 home runs, 30 RBIs, 47 runs and 11 steals, while Martinez’s line is .345/.395/.661 with 13 homers, 38 RBIs and 29 runs.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .303/.376/.690, Martinez performed well at home last season, producing .355/.439/.820 across 253 plate appearances.

In the visiting dugout, Baltimore’s pitching staff allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starters own a 5.53 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 7.55 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.36, along with a WHIP of 1.56.

The Orioles offense has slashed .233/.299/.403 on its way to 4.2 runs scored per game this year, including 5.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Baltimore’s hitters have been led by shortstop Manny Machado and outfielder Trey Mancini. Machado is slashing .347/.423/.671 with 14 home runs, 42 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Mancini is slashing .259/.341/.420 with six homers, 16 RBIs and 26 runs scored.

Maintaining a slash line of .227/.264/.387 across 254 such plate appearances, Machado seemed to have some trouble hitting righty pitching on the road in 2017 (compared to his overall season slash line of .260/.311/.473).

The Orioles have lost 11.4 units and are 11-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 12 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 9.8 units and are 18-15 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 17 of those games, compared to 15 that went under the total.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER

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Betting Notes

Boston has posted 24.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 25.2 over its last five.

The Orioles have hit 22 home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit 16 over their last 10.


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