The Houston Texans host the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium this week. The NFL’s fifth-leading rusher, Justin Forsett (1,128 yards, 8 TDs) the focal point of this matchup. Players will take the field Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET and it will air on CBS.
Houston dropped one to Indianapolis 17-10 last week. J.J. Watt led the way for the Houston defense in the loss, recording six tackles and two sacks. Arian Foster contributed as well, putting up 99 yards on 26 carries. Baltimore is looking to repeat last week when they defeated Jacksonville 20-12. Owen Daniels had a good performance for the Ravens, totaling four catches for 62 yards and one TD.
The Texans, a three-point underdog, will be looking to hold down their home field when Baltimore comes to town. The matchup currently has a 42-point Over/Under (O/U). Heading into Week 16 of league action, the Texans are 7-7 Straight Up (SU) and 8-5-1 Against The Spread (ATS). In their five most recent matchups, the Texans went 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. When the Texans pass the ball, they do so with authority. They average 3.5 yards each time they throw during home games, fifth in the NFL. Recently, the Texans may have discovered the secret to a better defense; they’ve only been allowing 16 PPG over their last five matchups, well under their season average of 19.8. The Houston run defense has played at another level during those games. Its given up only 92.8 rush yards per game during that span. One of the keys to the game will be if the Ravens can protect the ball against the takeaway vultures of the Texans, whose defense leads the league with 2.5 turnovers per home game.
In the other locker room, the Ravens have a record of 8-6 ATS and 9-5 SU. In the previous five games, Baltimore has a record of 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. Offensively, they are a fun team to watch with an average of 27.6 points per game on the road, the third-ranked scoring team in the league. The Texans have not found a lot of success stopping their opponents’ passing game. The Ravens have probably taken notice of that and will look to abuse a pass defense that ranks 28th in the NFL with 257.6 passing yards allowed per game. Shifting to the other side of the ball, it might be tough for the Texans to keep up with Baltimore’s defense in a few areas. The Ravens have the fourth-ranked run defense in the league, giving up just 92.9 rushing yards per game when they are the visiting team. The Ravens usually get going immediately from the initial kickoff, averaging 6.4 points in the first quarter of road games. Special teams is usually an area of weakness for the Texans, giving up 101 return yards per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – BAL, ATS Winner – BAL, O/U – Over
Notes
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games on the road.
Houston is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games.
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston.
Houston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home.
Houston is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games at home.
Houston is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore.
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore.
Baltimore is 5-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Houston is 5-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Baltimore is 8-1 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Houston is 7-0 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
Houston is 6-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle this year, and only 1-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Houston is winless (0-3 SU) this season when allowing at least 3 sacks in a game. The Baltimore defense is currently averaging 3.3 sacks over the last five games.
The Houston passing attack is ranked 25th in the league, while the Baltimore pass defense is only ranked 29th. The Ravens’ passing game is ranked 14th, compared to the 28th-ranked pass defense of the Texans.
Baltimore is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its fifth-ranked rushing attack will face the 13th-ranked run defense of Houston, while its third-ranked run defense will look to contain the fourth-ranked rushing game of the Texans.
Baltimore has allowed 24.0 points per game on the road, which is ranked 17th in the league. Houston has scored 24.5 points per game at home (ranked 13th overall).
Houston has given up 21.7 points per contest at home this year, which is ranked 16th in the NFL. The Baltimore offense has averaged 27.6 points per game on the road (ranked third overall).
