It will be a battle between Big 12 opponents when the Texas Longhorns (15-10, 5-7 Big 12) welcome the Baylor Bears (15-10, 5-7 Big 12) to Frank Erwin Special Events Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, February 12, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 133 points with Texas opening as a 3-point favorite.
Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns ATS Prediction
The Bears will be looking for similar success after defeating the No. 10 Kansas Jayhawks in their last outing, 80-64. Baylor’s free throw rate was their largest strength over Kansas. The Bears had a rate of 0.189 (below their season average of 0.233), while the Jayhawks posted a mark of 0.127 (below their season average of 0.183). Nuni Omot had a solid performance for Baylor, finishing with 17 points and six rebounds.
In the Longhorns’ last game, they lost to the TCU Horned Frogs, 87-71. TCU’s rebounding was their largest advantage. The Horned Frogs had more offensive rebounds (11 vs. five), defensive rebounds (22 vs. 17) and total rebounds (33 vs. 22). Mohamed Bamba had a solid performance for Texas, leading the team in scoring with 23 points on 9-for-16 shooting.
Getting to the line could be rare for Texas in this meeting. The Longhorns currently rank 222nd in the nation with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.228, while Baylor ranks 48th in FTA rate allowed (0.195).
Baylor heads into the game with records of 15-10 straight up (SU) and 11-7 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Bears have typically gone under the projected point total (61.1 percent).
Meanwhile, Texas is 15-10 SU and 11-10 ATS. Similarly to Baylor, a little over half of Longhorns games have finished under the O/U total.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Longhorns lost 69-60, unable to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. Bamba put up 15 points, nine rebounds and five blocks. The game finished with a total of 129 points, which was just 4 points below the projected point total of 133 points. Baylor’s 0.314 free throw rate was their largest advantage over Texas, who had a rate of 0.057.
Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns Betting Pick
Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor, O/U – Under
On the road, Baylor is 6-4 ATS with 7 unders, 2 overs and 1 push.
At home, Texas is 6-4 ATS with 6 unders, 3 overs and 1 push.
Baylor ranks 61st in assists per game (15.5) while Texas ranks 225th (12.0).
The Bears rank 36th in rebounds allowed per game (31.8) while the Longhorns rank 195th (36.1).
Texas ranks 16th in blocks per game (5.4) while Baylor ranks 159th in blocks allowed per game (4.0).
The Longhorns rank 122nd in three pointers attempted per game (22.7) while the Bears rank 239th (19.2).
In their last five games, Baylor is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Texas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push over their last five games.
The Bears’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.6, down from 8.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Longhorns have scored an average of 74.0 points per game (1.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 74.6 points per game (6.9 above their season average).
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