With the Players Championship next week and the Masters just over a month away, the anticipation and intrigue continues to build ahead of this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. There’s a slight sour note as Tiger Woods pulled out of the event with an injury. He was going to be second in line to Rory McIlroy in terms of the betting odds. Instead, McIlroy is the clear-cut favorite as he aims to defend his title.
We took the time to break down where the smart money is headed with a look at the top favorites and some sneaky good sleeper value picks that should be in contention for the outright win this weekend. Here is a look at the best bets to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Event Details
Event: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Category: PGA
Date: March 7th-10th, 2019
Location: Bay Hill Golf Club & Lounge, Orlando, Florida
Past Five Winners
2018: Rory McIlroy -18
2017: Marc Leishman -11
2016: Jason Day -17
2015: Matt Every -19
2014: Matt Every -13
Rory McIlroy +650
The defending champion is on fire to open the year with four top-five finishes in as many starts. McIlroy currently ranks No. 1 in strokes gained (tee-to-green) and based on his putting numbers at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, we should probably expect a strong performance from him on the greens again this time around. With an ideal combination of resume at this course and outstanding form heading in to this event, McIlroy is the obvious betting favorite to win.
Justin Rose +950
Sticking with another golfer that is rolling heading into this event, Rose already has two wins in five starts this year. He should also be well-rested after missing the cut in Saudi Arabia, which could end up being a blessing in disguise heading into a busy month. Rose has already registered seven top-15 finishes at Bay Hill in his career, so we know he has a pretty strong understanding of what it takes to win here and the skill set to do it. He’s the only other golfer inside of 10/1 this week.
Brooks Koepka +1050
Koepka doesn’t have an outstanding resume at Bay Hill. However, that could lead to him flying under the radar a little bit as an intriguing contender this week. Koepka is coming off his first top-25 finish in five attempts at PGA National. That’s important because he never really had a strong resume at that course in the past and he nearly won the tournament with a runner-up finish. Can Koepka double down and contend for the win again at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week? At +1050 odds, it might be worth taking a chance on him.
Jason Day +1250
The 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational winner and world No. 1 is often considered a contender in just about every tournament he enters. This week won’t be any different. Day has finished in the top-15 in all five of his made cuts this year, so we can feel confident that he is poised for a strong performance this week. While his overall course form isn’t outstanding beyond the 2016 victory, that win is enough to give him the benefit of the doubt as one of the most talented golfers in this week’s field.
Bryson DeChambeau +1550
DeChambeau isn’t among the top favorites this week but he probably should be based on his overall production. DeChambeau has produced five wins in the last nine months and was the runner-up in this tournament a year ago. Currently ranked third in par-five scoring, DeChambeau’s skill set should translate well at Bay Hill.
Marc Leishman +2250
Leishman is the third Arnold Palmer Invitational winner to appear on this list. Of that trio, he is undoubtedly the best value pick on the board at +2250 odds.
Leishman has two additional top-10 finishes and a top-20 finish to go with his 2017 victory at Bay Hill. His scoring average over his last 12 rounds at this course is 69.75. Perhaps just as importantly, Leishman has produced five top-five finishes in his eight starts so far this season. All things considered, Leishman should be an intriguing value pick to consider as a bet to win outright this week.
Ian Poulter +4550
Digging a little deeper on the list of potential sleeper picks to win this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, Poulter stands out for a couple of reasons. First of all, he is one of the hottest golfers on the planet with four consecutive top-six finishes worldwide – including a third-place finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship last week. Second, Poulter hasn’t missed a cut at Bay Hill since 2011, producing five top-25 finishes over that span.
Michael Thompson +7550
Looking even further down the list, Thompson stands out big time with his ridiculous +7550 price tag. The 33-year-old has produced five straight top-20 finishes and six overall this season. Two of those results ended up being in the top-10. Additionally, the underlying numbers support the idea that he can continue to perform at a high level as his ball striking numbers have improved. Meanwhile, his putting numbers are the best he has produced in almost two years. After we witnessed a big longshot win last week, Thompson is worth a flier at this price tag.
Odds To Win 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rory McIlroy +650
Rickie Fowler +1150
Justin Rose +950
Jason Day +1250
Brooks Koepka +1050
Bryson DeChambeau +1550
Marc Leishman +2250
Hideki Matsuyama +2250
Tommy Fleetwood +3250
Francesco Molinari +3250
Patrick Reed +3250
Phil Mickelson +3550
Billy Horschel +4550
Ian Poulter +4550
Lucas Glover +5050
Henrik Stenson +5050
Louis Oosthuizen +5050
Bubba Watson +5050
Rafa Cabrera Bello +5500
Hao Tong Li +5500
Daniel Berger +5500
Tyrrell Hatton +5500
Charles Howell III +5500
Keegan Bradley +6550
Luke List +6550
Jason Kokrak +6550
Michael Thompson +7550
JB Holmes +7050
Si Woo Kim +6550
