Best Bets to Win The Arnold Palmer Invitational

With the Players Championship next week and the Masters just over a month away, the anticipation and intrigue continues to build ahead of this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. There’s a slight sour note as Tiger Woods pulled out of the event with an injury. He was going to be second in line to Rory McIlroy in terms of the betting odds. Instead, McIlroy is the clear-cut favorite as he aims to defend his title.

We took the time to break down where the smart money is headed with a look at the top favorites and some sneaky good sleeper value picks that should be in contention for the outright win this weekend. Here is a look at the best bets to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Event Details

Event: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Category: PGA

Date: March 7th-10th, 2019

Location: Bay Hill Golf Club & Lounge, Orlando, Florida

Past Five Winners

2018: Rory McIlroy -18

2017: Marc Leishman -11

2016: Jason Day -17

2015: Matt Every -19

2014: Matt Every -13

Rory McIlroy +650

The defending champion is on fire to open the year with four top-five finishes in as many starts. McIlroy currently ranks No. 1 in strokes gained (tee-to-green) and based on his putting numbers at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, we should probably expect a strong performance from him on the greens again this time around. With an ideal combination of resume at this course and outstanding form heading in to this event, McIlroy is the obvious betting favorite to win.

Justin Rose +950

Sticking with another golfer that is rolling heading into this event, Rose already has two wins in five starts this year. He should also be well-rested after missing the cut in Saudi Arabia, which could end up being a blessing in disguise heading into a busy month. Rose has already registered seven top-15 finishes at Bay Hill in his career, so we know he has a pretty strong understanding of what it takes to win here and the skill set to do it. He’s the only other golfer inside of 10/1 this week.

Brooks Koepka +1050

Koepka doesn’t have an outstanding resume at Bay Hill. However, that could lead to him flying under the radar a little bit as an intriguing contender this week. Koepka is coming off his first top-25 finish in five attempts at PGA National. That’s important because he never really had a strong resume at that course in the past and he nearly won the tournament with a runner-up finish. Can Koepka double down and contend for the win again at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week? At +1050 odds, it might be worth taking a chance on him.

Jason Day +1250

The 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational winner and world No. 1 is often considered a contender in just about every tournament he enters. This week won’t be any different. Day has finished in the top-15 in all five of his made cuts this year, so we can feel confident that he is poised for a strong performance this week. While his overall course form isn’t outstanding beyond the 2016 victory, that win is enough to give him the benefit of the doubt as one of the most talented golfers in this week’s field.

Bryson DeChambeau +1550

DeChambeau isn’t among the top favorites this week but he probably should be based on his overall production. DeChambeau has produced five wins in the last nine months and was the runner-up in this tournament a year ago. Currently ranked third in par-five scoring, DeChambeau’s skill set should translate well at Bay Hill.

Marc Leishman +2250

Leishman is the third Arnold Palmer Invitational winner to appear on this list. Of that trio, he is undoubtedly the best value pick on the board at +2250 odds.

Leishman has two additional top-10 finishes and a top-20 finish to go with his 2017 victory at Bay Hill. His scoring average over his last 12 rounds at this course is 69.75. Perhaps just as importantly, Leishman has produced five top-five finishes in his eight starts so far this season. All things considered, Leishman should be an intriguing value pick to consider as a bet to win outright this week.

Ian Poulter +4550

Digging a little deeper on the list of potential sleeper picks to win this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, Poulter stands out for a couple of reasons. First of all, he is one of the hottest golfers on the planet with four consecutive top-six finishes worldwide – including a third-place finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship last week. Second, Poulter hasn’t missed a cut at Bay Hill since 2011, producing five top-25 finishes over that span.

Michael Thompson +7550

Looking even further down the list, Thompson stands out big time with his ridiculous +7550 price tag. The 33-year-old has produced five straight top-20 finishes and six overall this season. Two of those results ended up being in the top-10. Additionally, the underlying numbers support the idea that he can continue to perform at a high level as his ball striking numbers have improved. Meanwhile, his putting numbers are the best he has produced in almost two years. After we witnessed a big longshot win last week, Thompson is worth a flier at this price tag.

Odds To Win 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Rory McIlroy +650

Rickie Fowler +1150

Justin Rose +950

Jason Day +1250

Brooks Koepka +1050

Bryson DeChambeau +1550

Marc Leishman +2250

Hideki Matsuyama +2250

Tommy Fleetwood +3250

Francesco Molinari +3250

Patrick Reed +3250

Phil Mickelson +3550

Billy Horschel +4550

Ian Poulter +4550

Lucas Glover +5050

Henrik Stenson +5050

Louis Oosthuizen +5050

Bubba Watson +5050

Rafa Cabrera Bello +5500

Hao Tong Li +5500

Daniel Berger +5500

Tyrrell Hatton +5500

Charles Howell III +5500

Keegan Bradley +6550

Luke List +6550

Jason Kokrak +6550

Michael Thompson +7550

JB Holmes +7050

Si Woo Kim +6550

mm

About Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

Summary
Best Bets to Win The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Article Name
Best Bets to Win The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Description
With the Players Championship next week and the Masters just over a month away, the anticipation and intrigue continues to build ahead of this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Author
GetMoreSports.com
GetMoreSports

About Geoff Harvey

mm
Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

Check Also

Salt Lake Stallions at San Antonio Commanders Preview: AAF Odds

The Salt Lake Stallions are coming off a win last week but it was just …

Orlando Apollos vs. Atlanta Legends Preview: AAF Odds

The Orlando Apollos were 5-0 entering Week 6 and were at the top of everyone’s …

Leave a Reply

Send this to friend