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Best Bets to Win The Players Championship

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The rearrangement of the PGA Tour schedule means we are headed to TPC Sawgrass at Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida for THE PLAYERS Championship a little earlier than usual. Unlike in past years when THE PLAYERS Championship was held on Mother’s Day weekend, this year’s tournament will be held on St. Patrick’s Day weekend. While it might not seem like a big deal on paper, the reality is that the two-month shift could dramatically change the outlook for this tournament with the typically warmer conditions replaced by cooler weather. How big of an impact will it have on the outcome of this week’s event? Let’s take a closer look and identify the best bets on the board based on for THE PLAYERS Championship.

Event Details

Event: THE PLAYERS Championship

Category: PGA

Date: March 14th-17th, 2019

Location: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

Past Five Winners

2018: Webb Simpson -18

2017: Kim Si-woo -10

2016: Jason Day -15

2015: Rickie Fowler -12

2014: Martin Kaymer -13

Dustin Johnson +1050

Johnson last outing was his second victory at Chapultepec in three years. It was also his fourth victory over the last nine months. Considering his overall performance over the past couple of years, it makes sense that he would be a co-favorite this week. It’s worth mentioning that D.J. has never finished better than 12th in 10 appearances at this tournament.

Rory McIlroy +1050

McIlroy enters this tournament on a bit of a downer this week following a disappointing final round performance at Bay Hill on Sunday. However, despite that poor finish, McIlroy has still opened the calendar year with five consecutive top-six finishes, so he should feel confident that he bounces back this week. McIlroy leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green this season. Those could be important stats in play this week.

Justin Thomas +1550

Thomas might not be the chalk to win this tournament but he definitely deserves to be considered among the favorites. He finished third here a year ago and there is a lot to like about how his game translates at a course like TPC Sawgrass. Thomas is No. 1 in all-around strokes gained: approach-the-green, par breakers, adjusted scoring and par-five scoring. He’s also 4-for-4 in cuts made at THE PLAYERS Championship, including two top-11 finishes.

Francesco Molinari +2050

Molinari is coming off a massive win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Can he really double down and make it back-to-back wins this week at THE PLAYERS Championship? Molinari certainly has the resume as he has delivered four top-10 finishes in eight appearances at TPC Sawgrass. He missed the cut at this tournament a year ago, but he had finished in the top-seven in three consecutive years before that. If you’re less confident, a bet on him finishing in the top 10 could be a prop worth looking at.

Brooks Koepka +1850

Koepka is still chasing his first top-10 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, but he is coming off a T-11th here a year ago in which he showed signs that he is ready to take a next step. After all, Koepka fired a course record-tying 63 in that outing. While he struggled at Bay Hill last week, he was the runner-up at PGA National in his previous outing, so he should feel confident that he can bounce back.

Sergio Garcia +3050

Garcia won this event in 2008 when the conditions were very tough (in May).  Now he has a chance to turn back the clock and repeat here in conditions that could be similar now that the tournament has been moved up to March. Garcia is coming off back-to-back top-10 results in his last two PGA Tour starts.

Henrik Stenson +5050

Digging a little deeper on the board of sleeper picks, Stenson certainly stands out. He hasn’t exactly overwhelmed in terms of racking up the outright wins but his consistency has been exceptional. He has nine top-25 finishes in his last 13 starts overall. Stenson has the talent to contend in a loaded field this week. Ultimately, it will come down to whether he can put it all together for a full four rounds.

Lucas Glover +6550

The final pick on our board is the biggest underdog of them all. Glover is an excellent ball striker that continues to putt at a high level. In fact, he has put together three consecutive top-10 finishes, including a 10th-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. Despite the impressive numbers, Glover isn’t getting any love at all this week at such long odds. Considering his price tag, overall stats and the fact that he placed 6th at this tournament just two years ago, Glover might very well be the ideal sleeper pick.

Odds To Win 2019 THE PLAYERS Championship

Dustin Johnson +1050

Rory McIlroy +1050

Justin Thomas +1550

Rickie Fowler +1850

Justin Rose +1850

Brooks Koepka +1850

Francesco Molinari +2050

Jon Rahm +2250

Bryson DeChambeau +2550

Tiger Woods +2250

Tommy Fleetwood +2550

Xander Schauffele +2550

Sergio Garcia +3050

Adam Scott +3250

Jason Day +3550

Hideki Matsuyama +3550

Patrick Cantlay +4050

Paul Casey +4050

Webb Simpson +4550

Henrik Stenson +5050

Marc Leishman +5050

Gary Woodland +5050

Rafa Cabrera Bello +5050

Ian Poulter +4550

Jordan Spieth +5500

Tony Finau +5500

Matt Kuchar +5500

Patrick Reed +6550

Phil Mickelson +6550

Lucas Glover +6550

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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