Last week was a big one for the underdogs, as they went 7-7. It would be nice to enter Week 11 with a little wind at the canine’s backs, but such is not to be. It’s not that underdogs won’t win in NFL Week 11, it’s just that there aren’t a ton that jump off the bet slip.
In fact, there’s only one I really like and I’ll lead off with it.
Houston Texans at Washington Redskins (+3, O/U: 42)
No team has benefited more from its garbage schedule and the collapse of the AFC South in recent years than the Houston Texans.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 11 Opening Odds
It appears the same thing is happening in the NFC East this season, with Jay Gruden benefiting from a complete divisional collapse.
Get this.
The @Redskins have now played 9 games without a single lead change.
They are the first team with no lead changes through 9 games since the 1954 … Redskins! #WASvsTB
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 11, 2018
There’s plenty to be excited about from both teams and certainly the Texans have the more star-studded roster. Still, this is a Bill O’Brien coached team making a long trip to the East coast. I like the Redskins to win outright.
So that’s the one I’m actually feeling. Here are a couple that are at least worth thinking about.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2, O/U: 49)
If the Titans were a real team with real players and a real coach, there’s just no way they’d lose this game. Coming off what should be a signature win over the New England Patriots, Mike Vrabel and Marcus Mariota should absolutely be able to spin that into a playoff run. Here’s the thing, I just don’t believe they’ll do it.
Back in the first month of the season, Tennessee had a similar victory over the Philadelphia Eagles and then went on to lose three consecutive games, including an unforgivable loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Andrew Luck is 9-0 against the Titans. Only one other QB since the merger (Elway: 10-0 vs Pats) has owned another team more.
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) November 14, 2018
After losing four straight, Indianapolis is back on track and Andrew Luck just continues to look more and more like vintage Andrew Luck. In November and December, that’s going to be a problem for every team on the Colts’ schedule.
You have a choice here — do you believe that Vrabel and Mariota have figured it out or do you believe in Luck? I know where my money would go.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5, O/U: 44.5)
I feel a little bit better about the prospects of this match up. The Vikings and Bears have both feasted on lesser opponents over the last month to get solidly into the playoff race. The best win between the two teams is Minnesota’s, 23-21, victory over the Eagles five games ago, but neither squad has beaten a team with a winning record so far this season.
85 Bears redux?
Chicago will become the first @NFL team to play on SNF and then play the early 12:30 ET game on Thanksgiving.
85 hour turnaround.
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) November 14, 2018
If this game was in Minnesota, I’d go upset all day, but I also don’t think the Vikings would be dogs. As far as I’m concerned, this one is a coin flip.
