The first few weeks of the 2018 NFL season have been a testament to the unpredictability of the league with the Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears racing out to excellent starts while the Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons have been stuck in neutral. However, there are some cases where those results could really help handicappers looking for an edge on the lines for the upcoming week based on overreactions by certain sportsbooks to the lines for this Sunday. We took the time to identify the best teaser bet on a ticket that includes four selections getting seven points. Here is a look at the best teaser pick for Week 6 of the NFL season.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Line: Houston -8.5
Houston is still looking for its first win in regulation and is 1-4 against the spread so far this season. Somehow, the Texans are listed as 8.5-point favorites at home against the Bills. Buffalo has won two of its last three since handing the starting quarterback job to Josh Allen, including underdog wins over the Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans. However, it feels like a bit of a trap to take the Bills. In their two wins this season, they are a +5 on turnovers and that’s really what’s fueled their success. In their three losses, they are a -4 and have been outscored by an average of 25.6 points per game. Houston has its flaws but they know that if they don’t turnover the ball in this game, they’ll cruise. Tease the Texans down.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Line: Minnesota -10.5
On the other side of the list of substantial point spreads for Week 6, the seven-point tease could make Minnesota a very attractive option at minus-3.5 this week. The Vikings have won eight straight home games against the Cardinals, who are tied for the worst record in the NFL this season at 1-4. There will be a sense of urgency for a Minnesota team that is looking up at the Chicago Bears in the NFC North. Factor in that the Vikings already lost to the Bills as substantial favorites back in Week 3 and we feel very comfortable that they won’t suffer another letdown this Sunday. With Josh Rosen completing less than 50 percent of his passes so far, this is a tall order for Arizona. Take Minnesota to cover at -3.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Cincinnati -2.5
The Steelers showed signs of life in Sunday’s 41-17 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Now they will attempt to double down on the road against a Cincinnati side that currently leads the AFC North with a 4-1 record. The Bengals have been one of the most profitable teams in the league to bet on this year with a 4-1 record against the spread. That said, Cincinnati has lost five straight home games versus Pittsburgh and hasn’t been favored against their AFC North rival since 2015. I expect this to be a close game. That’s why teasing up the Steelers to +9.5 makes a lot of sense in this spot.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys
Line: Jacksonville -3
The final pick on this four-team, seven-point optimal teaser is Jacksonville. The Jaguars are coming off a lopsided 30-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in which they were embarrassed. However, they get a chance to bounce back on the road against a Dallas side that has failed to impress with a 2-3 record through the first five weeks of the season. The Cowboys are 3-7 straight up in its last 10 games as home underdogs. There is a good chance that trend continues against a Jacksonville side that will be playing with a sense of urgency as it attempts to bounce back from last week’s loss.
The Cowboys are a one-trick pony. Dak Prescott is averaging under 200 passing yards per game, so the Jags know that if they stop Ezekiel Elliott, they probably win this game.
Teasing the Jaguars moves them to +4 on the road. Jacksonville should have no trouble covering that number as the final selection on this optimal teaser ticket for Week 6.
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