Kareem Hunt became the latest occupant of the Commissioner’s Exempt List shortly before the Chiefs released him last week. The debate over Hunt’s next stop is already underway and, naturally, we can bet on it. Here are odds and analysis for how and when the Hunt saga will conclude.
Length of Kareem Hunt suspension by the NFL
5 games or fewer +400
6-10 games +150
11 games or more -200
The case could be made that this is an easy call. There is one known accusation of domestic violence against Hunt. The NFL Domestic Violence Policy states that offenders will be suspended six games for a first offense and will receive a lifetime ban for the second. Six games would be the logical punishment considering what we know now.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 14 Odds
Complicating matters is the second alleged incident. There’s no video for that one (yet) so it’s unclear if it will trigger a lifetime ban.
It’s certainly very unlikely that he’ll get five games or fewer. There’s a video of the incident and the NFL will do what it can to avoid what would likely be the worst in a long line of PR disasters. In this case, you’re betting on Roger Goodell taking control of and subsequently botching the suspension by not even following the rules set forth after the Ray Rice fiasco. Admittedly, betting on the NFL to do the dumbest thing you can think of wouldn’t be the worst use of money.
As mentioned, six-10 games is likely the way to go. Six games are almost a given and a few more arbitrarily thrown in to lessen PR issues wouldn’t be a shock. Remember, Goodell originally suspended Rice for two games before increasing it to “indefinitely” after the video surfaced. That was before the Domestic Violence Policy was put into effect, but there’s precedent for these things changing.
The 11 games or more bet relies on a couple of things. First, Hunt could get a lifetime ban if the second incident is taken as seriously as the first. Second, the surprise additional suspension levied by the NFL could be more than four games. Adrian Peterson was suspended for 15 games in 2014 in a situation that apparently proved Goodell could increase or decrease punishment as he sees fit. Perhaps the NFL will suspend Hunt six games for the incident on video and six more games for a series of negative accusations, much like Ezekiel Elliott in 2017.
Assuming Hunt does avoid a lifetime ban, one team is already getting mentioned as a potential suitor.
Will the Washington Redskins sign Kareem Hunt by 12/31/19?
Yes +1000
No -2000
The Redskins have a long history of signing talented, troubled players. They proved as much when they recently claimed Reuben Foster off waivers despite disciplinary issues dating back to college that culminated in a domestic violence arrest. Though, as we learned from Ray Rice, a video can change everything.
Hunt would represent an upgrade for just about every team in the league and the Redskins are likely no exception. We don’t know yet because Derrius Guice has yet to make his debut after tearing an ACL in Washington’s first preseason game. He could be an incredible back in his own right. However, they do have different styles, so the Redskins could use both at the same time. There’s also the chance Guice could have his own issues at some point considering the rumors that led to him falling in the draft.
That said, bettors interested in this prop would be better off taking the field. The Redskins surely won’t want to deal with more damage control after adding Foster. They’re fairly set at running back and they may even take a run at Le’Veon Bell in free agency. They’re much more likely to decide Hunt isn’t worth the headache.
