NFL free agency and the draft have concluded, and Bill Barnwell is assessing the best and worst moves from the 2026 offseason across the AFC, beginning with the Buffalo Bills, according to Barnwell’s analysis.
Barnwell identifies the Bills’ best move as re-signing center Connor McGovern. He places that deal in context of a rising market for centers after Tyler Linderbaum signed a $27 million-per-year contract with the Raiders, up from the prior peak of Creed Humphrey’s $18 million-per-year deal with the Chiefs. McGovern’s new four-year, $52 million contract carries a $13 million annual average and included what Barnwell describes as roughly a 43% guarantee of the third-year compensation to keep Buffalo’s starting center from free agency.
Barnwell argues the McGovern extension looks like reasonable value, noting that if Buffalo moved on after two seasons it would have paid roughly $32.6 million for those prime years—about $16 million per year—and that McGovern made the Pro Bowl in 2024 and brings the mobility that helps Buffalo’s rushing attack.
By contrast, Barnwell labels the acquisition of wide receiver DJ Moore the Bills’ worst move so far. He calls the process around Moore’s arrival indicative of an organization acting out of desperation after struggles at the position in 2025. Buffalo sent a second-round pick to Chicago, absorbed all of Moore’s existing salary and guaranteed the receiver $13.5 million in 2028, despite Moore coming off what Barnwell describes as his worst season in 2025 and having fallen out of favor in the Bears’ offense.
Barnwell adds that the Bears had limited leverage in the deal — they faced about $49 million in commitments to Moore over the next two seasons — which made the Bills’ decision to part with a second-round pick and future guarantees particularly notable. Barnwell is continuing a team-by-team review of AFC offseason moves and plans to cover the NFC next week.
