The Boise State Broncos head south to seek revenge for last years defeat at the hands of the New Mexico Lobos. The game starts on Friday, October 7th at 9:00 p.m. ET at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. It will be shown on the CBS Sports Network for your viewing entertainment. As of now, the Broncos are -17 point favorites and the over/under is at 61.5.
Last year, the Lobos ran away with a victory 31-24 on the Smurf Turf in Boise, Idaho. As a result, the Lobos claimed their first victory over the Broncos in their school’s history. Boise State leads the all-time series over New Mexico 6-1.
Boise State (4-0):
The Broncos a quietly at it again, reeling off four wins and going undefeated for the first quarter of the season. Nevertheless, Houston is the team that is getting all the attention from the experts as the best non-power five team in the country.
Quarterback Brett Rypien is looking good to start the 2016 campaign as well. Last year against the Lobos, he threw the ball 75 times for over 500 yards but had three big interceptions that cost them the contest. This year, the prodigal nephew has completed 75 passes for over 1,000 yards with six scores and three picks.
Boise state likes to stay balanced on offense and when they run the ball they look to their star out of the back field Jeremy McNichols. At times, McNichols has been electrifying to watch. He has carried the rock almost 90 times for over 500 yards and has seven scores for his efforts.
Five Bronco receivers pitch in to move the chains through the air. Combined, they have collected 75 catches for over 1,000 yards and eight scores. Senior Thomas Sperbeck, leads this squad with 24 grabs for over 400 yards and three touchdowns.ontest in 2016. That is good enough to be ranked 5th in the country. That strength plays right into their wheel-house against a run happy team like New Mexico.
New Mexico (2-2):
Back-to-back losses to in-state rival New Mexico State and then Rutgers the following week, put New Mexico in a position where it needed a win. The Lobos answered the call and found away to outscore San Jose State 48-41 last weekend.
Lamar Jordan, the New Mexico quarterback likes to use his legs to move the chains. The Lobos decided on giving him the chance when starter Austin Apodaca wasn’t effective in their two straight loses.
No matter who gets the green flag on Friday, neither of the two will light up the boards through the air. Together, they have completed only 41 passes for 500 yards with three touchdowns and three picks.
Six running backs will see time against the Broncos on Friday night. New Mexico rotates them in and out through their games. It has been effective, as the Lobos are second in the country, rushing for almost 350 yards a game.
Teriyon Gipson should be back in the line-up after suffering a hamstring injury last week. The talented back has only 31 carries but they have gone for just under 400 yards (12.9). As a result, he leads the team in touchdowns with five.
New Mexico is ranked higher than Boise State in both total defense and turnover margin. Senior linebacker Dakota Cox is also a tackling machine for the Lobos. Unfortunately, the better than average defense finds away to give up a lot of points. New Mexico ranks 99th in the country, giving up almost 33 points a game.
Trends and Notes:
The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Lobos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
The Over is 24-9 in the Broncos last 33 road games.
The Over is 6-0 in the Lobos last 6 games overall.
Game Prediction:
The Boise State Broncos are clearly the better of the two teams, but the New Mexico Lobos have played them tough over the last two meetings. Both schools have play makers out of the backfield so they will look to get them started early and often.
The -17 is a tough play when betting against a home dog, and taking the Lobos could be risky considering the Broncos have a sour taste in their mouth from last seasons debacle.
We at GMS say stick to the numbers on this one and that moves us to recommend the over 60.5. Yes, both teams have underrated defenses but for whatever reason, when they match-up together a lot of points hit the board. Take the over 60.5 and hope the home field advantage spurs the New Mexico run game to over achieve once again.
Take the Over 60.5
