This Saturday, May 17th, legendary 4 weight division boxing champion Juan Manuel Marquez returns to the ring at the Inglewood Forum as he faces veteran Mikey Alvarado in the 12 round main event. Right now Marquez sits as a comfortable (-245) favorite, with the return on Alvarado (+205). The question here is going to be is there any value in Alvarado as the ‘dog?
Mikey Alvarado is a tough, straight forward fighter who up until about 18 months ago sported a 33-0 record. Of the 33 wins, 23 came by way of the KO, so Alvarez has some starch in his gloves, though his list of opponents does not have many names that leap out at you. Emmanuel Clottey. Breidis Prescott.
Then Alvarado dropped the first fight of his career in October of 2012, to Brandon Rios, getting stopped in the 7th after setting a blistering pace in a match that was a barn burner. Punch stat reports more than 80 percent of the punches landed by both men were power shots. The rematch went down less than six months later, with Alvarado a roughly 3 to 1 underdog, and though he was bloodied and bruised early, Alvarado worked a torrid pace to with the UD in their second match. A third match is in the works against Rios, and it will likely happen sometime in 2015.
Marquez lost a tight decision to Timothy Bradley and derailed Manny Pacquiao in his last 2 outings, signalling that Marquez is, at 40, still one of the very best in the world, part of a true elite. His conditioning has gone through the ceiling and he is powerful as a welterweight.
Did you see Brandon Rios against Manny Pacquiao? Sometimes it is too simple to just compare who fought who, and it can be a bugaboo to understanding real boxing, but this one is almost that simple. Pacquiao disposed of Rios with ease, never once being threatened and in fact being exposed as ‘not of Pacquiao’s level’.
You may think Alvarado has a chance with his power and volume punching, but he is coming up a weight, and it is fair to say he is a solid fighter at the level of Brandon Rios. Marquez has proven he is every bit the elite level Pacquiao and Mayweather are, and that is what is dictating the line. There are few in boxing whobelieve in Alvarez as the underdog this time around, but remember, Alvaraez was a bigger underdog going into the 2nd Rios fight than he is here.
