Coming up July 12th at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Mexican superstar Saul Alvarez returns to the ring against Erislandy Lara in a bout that is scheduled at Light Middleweight (154 lbs). Right now, Alvarez is a (-165) favorite at the books over Lara, who returns (+140).
It will be interesting to see how the shake up within Alvarez’ promoter, Golden Boy, affects the young fighter. When the event was originally announced, Richard Shaefer was the promoter of record, however that has changed now that Shaefer has left Golden Boy. This is Alvarez’ second fight after his loss to Floyd Mayweather, and Lara is no slouch. If Alvarez is able to train as always and remain removed from the politics at Golden Boy, then he deserves to be a favorite, but if the turmoil has affected him, Lara may have some betting value.
Lara is a highly skilled fighter. He fled Cuba after winning three amateur World Championships at welterweight, and he has gone 19-1-2 as a professional, with his only loss being to Paul Williams back in 2011.
Interestingly, both Alvarez and Lara have Alfredo ‘El Perro’ Angulo as a common opponent, and both scored the TKO stoppage in the 10th round against the rugged Mexican. If that match is to be used as a measuring stick, Alvarez seemed to dominate Angulo and was comfortably ahead on the cards when it was stopped, while Lara and Angulo fought a much closer fight that saw Angulo ahead on one of the judge’s cards when the fight was stopped.
In this fight, look for Lara to run up against a brick wall if Alvarez is focused and ready for the fight. Alvarez is bigger and stronger, and skill wise, he can match the technician Lara. Alvarez, for all his baby face characteristics and popularity, has a mean streak as well and he hits hard. Look for him to pressure Lara while coming forward. It will be very telling early on if Alvarez can walk through Lara’s punches and absorb them, as Lara has a good KO percentage in his pro career but he will have to prove his power against Alvarez. Alvarez has good defenses, but he is going to get hit against Lara, so it will be important for Lara to hit Alvarez hard. Most experts think Lara cant do it.
