The Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians meet in a three-game series this week after seasons that have repeatedly seen both clubs exceed preseason expectations. The two teams have been described as perennial contenders in their respective Central divisions and have routinely been underrated entering campaigns.
Comparisons of opening over/under figures from the betting markets with actual results show a clear pattern. Over the past 11 years the Brewers’ average expected win total was 81.1, while their actual average was 89.2. The Guardians averaged an expected 84.5 wins and have produced an average of 90.1 in the same span.
A major driver of those gains has been player production that outperforms projections. Steamer projected Jacob Misiorowski for 1.53 fWAR this season, yet he is on pace for 9.2 fWAR. Steamer had Brayan Rocchio at 1.05 fWAR; he is on pace for 4.5 and ranks fourth among American League shortstops in the AXE system. Kyle Harrison was forecast for 1.0 fWAR after being acquired from Boston; he is now on pace for 4.0 fWAR and ranks 11th among National League starting pitchers by AXE.
Not every player on either roster beats projections, but Milwaukee and Cleveland tend to generate a positive net outcome in aggregated player performance. Steamer’s projections produce a list of teams ranked by wins above forecasted fWAR; the New York Mets sit last on that list at minus-18.3 fWAR below expectation based on current results prorated to 162 games.
Both organizations are noted for keeping internal practices proprietary, limiting what can be known about the specific methods that produce these results. Because of that discretion, observers rely on projection comparisons and performance metrics to identify how the Brewers and Guardians continue to outperform preseason forecasts.
