The regular season wraps up for the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills, who clash at Gillette Stadium for an AFC East Week 17 finale. The game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday and can be seen on CBS.
New England and Buffalo last met in Week 6, when the Patriots put in another dominant performance and beat the Bills 37-22. New England has won six straight over the Bills, dating back to the 2011 season. Tom Brady had an outstanding performance throwing the ball the last time they met, completing 27 of 37 pass attempts for 361 yards and four TDs. Brandon LaFell had a great game as well, adding 97 yards and two TDs on four receptions. Scott Chandler had a great performance for Buffalo, recording six receptions for 105 yards. Robert Woods had a big game as well, totaling 78 yards and a TD on seven catches.
The Patriots are a heavy 10-point favorite at home and the Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at zero points. Sitting at 12-3 Straight Up (SU) and 9-6 Against The Spread (ATS), the Patriots will look to improve as they head into Week 17. In their five most recent matchups, the Patriots went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. The Patriots utilize the air extensively at home. They pass 41.1 times per home game which is the second best in the NFL. New England’s top-five home scoring defense, which only allows 16.7 points per home game, will have a chance to build upon its numbers against the Bills. Don’t expect Buffalo to have much success running the ball against the Patriots. The Bills average 78 rushing yards per game on the road, 27th in the NFL. Keep an eye on New England to turn it up a notch during the second quarter of home games, where they average 15 points. New England likes to run an up-tempo, fast-paced offense. With an average of 67.5 plays per game, they rank fourth in the NFL.
Across the field, the Bills have 8-7 SU and ATS records this season. In the previous five games, Buffalo has a record of 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. Buffalo has made opposing defenses pay as of late, averaging 25 points per game over the last five games. This improved stretch brought its season average to 21.7 PPG. If New England’s earlier games are any indication, the Bills should throw the ball more on offense. The Patriots allow 261.7 passing yards per home game, 28th in the NFL. The Patriots may want to check what’s in Buffalo’s coolers when they match up this week. The Bills are also playing better defense than they have all year, only allowing 15 PPG over their last five games, which is well under their season average of 18.7 points. The pass defense is a highlight of Buffalo’s defense over those five weeks, only giving up 184.4 yards passing per opponent.
Predictions: SU Winner – NE, ATS Winner – NE, O/U – Under
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 7 games on the road.
Buffalo is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 7 games when playing New England.
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England.
Buffalo is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing New England.
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 5 games when playing on the road against New England.
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
Buffalo is 5-1 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. New England is 10-0 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
This season, New England is only 2-1 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Dating back to last season, New England is 8-3 SU against AFC East opponents, while Buffalo is 6-5 SU against divisional foes.
The New England rushing attack is ranked only 17th in the league, while the Buffalo run defense is ranked 13th. The Bills’ rushing game is ranked just 25th, compared to the 12th-ranked run defense of the Patriots.
