The Mississippi State Bulldogs stroll into Lavell Edwards Stadium to dance with the BYU Cougars on Friday, October 14th. The contest is slated to start at 10:15 p.m. ET and will be telecast on the ESPN Network. As of now, BYU is a -7 point favorite and the total is listed at 57.5. The over/under has moved 4 points since it opened at 53.5.
The Bulldogs were smacked around last week by Auburn. The Tigers took a 35-0 half-time lead and went on cruise control. The Cougars got back to their winning ways, beating a struggling Michigan State team in East Lansing 31-14. The BYU defense held the Spartans to 206 total yards of offense.
Mississippi State (2-3):
It’s obvious early on, that the Bulldogs miss their signal-caller Dak Prescott more than any other SEC team this year. Mississippi State has been struggling to move the ball, especially through the air.
New quarterback Nick Fitzgerald leads an offense that is ranked 89th in the nation, totaling just over 209 yards a game through the air. This year, Fitzgerald has completed over 70 passes for 778 yards and seven scores. The fresh face has protected the ball, throwing only two picks in as many games.
Running the football hasn’t been any easier for the Bulldogs in 2016. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald leads the team with 64 carries for almost 400 yards and no touchdowns. Running back Brandon Holloway has pitched in almost 50 carries for just over 200 yards and one trip to the promised land.
Wide receiver Fred Ross is Nick Fitzgerald’s go-to guy when they need to move the chains through he air. Ross has 30 catches for 334 yards and a team-high five touchdowns.
The Mississippi State defense hasn’t really been that bad. They are only allowing 371.4 yards per game, but it struggled to stop the run against the Tigers last week. Linebacker Richie Brown, the Bulldogs starting line backer has been good. So far, he has already totaled 42 tackles in 2016.
BYU (3-3):
There is no secret to the Cougar’s offensive methodology. They have entrusted their unit to tail back Jamal Williams. Part of the reason why they rely so heavily on Williams is the unsteady play of quarterback Taysom Hill.
Taysom Hill hasn’t lived up to the hype after several injuries have hampered his college career. The senior man under center has racked up 1255 yards on 120 completions, which isn’t bad. Unfortunately, Hill’s decisions with the football are what give Cougar’s fans a reason to pause. He has thrown seven touchdowns, but also has six interceptions.
Running back Jamal Williams has been an absolute work-horse for the BYU offense this season. As a result, Williams has carried the rock almost 140 times for 866 yards and an impressive 10 touchdowns. Furthermore, his work-load should only increase against an SEC team that struggled to stop the run last weak.
Taysom Hill does tend to spread the ball around through the air. Five different Cougar receivers have at least 15 catches or more. Senior nick Kurtz leads this group with 21 grabs for 232 yards and a touchdown.
A battle-tested BYU defense will be on display Friday night in Provo, Utah. Against some of the toughest competition in the nation, the Cougar defense remains solid against the run. The front seven ranks 29th in the nation, allowing only 125.8 yards per game.
Trends and Notes:
The Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
The Under is 18-7-1 in the Cougars last 26 Friday games.
The Under is 4-1 in the Bulldogs last 5 games overall.
Game Prediction:
Neither teams are having their best seasons so far, but BYU seemed to turn things around against Toledo and Michigan State the past two weeks. The Mississippi State Bulldogs need this win badly because 2-4 in the SEC almost eliminates them from bowl contention.
The Cougars will look to get Jamal Williams going early. If that’s the case, the Bulldogs could be in deep trouble if they performed like they did against the Tiger’s run game last week. Mississippi State does seem to play better after losses so they should come out focused on Friday.
BYU has the home field advantage and will field the more experienced units on both sides of the ball. The defense of the Cougars has seen a lot better offenses than the Bulldogs will bring, and play really tough in front of their home fans. We at Get More Sports see a lot of action via the ground, so time of possession and ball controlling drives will be the norm.
BYU should win this one barring any untimely turnovers from their senior quarterback. Take the Cougars to jump out early and cover the half time spread of -4. Also, the total has climbed too high for our liking. Jump on the under 57.5.
