NBA Preview: Cavs Need their “D” to Repeat as League Champs
Cleveland Cavaliers (47-25) at San Antonio Spurs (56-16), 8 p.m. EST
Line: Spurs -4.5. Total 212.
When I first looked at this line on Sunday night, I admit I was ready to jump all over San Antonio and lay the points. I looked around at a few tracking websites and saw lots of people on the Spurs. These people have good reason to be on San Antonio.
The Cavaliers have not figured it out yet on defense. They have allowed 120+ points in three of their last four games. They are now ranked #22 in the league in defensive rating and points allowed per game.
I suppose one could argue that their porous defense is cancelled out by their efficient offense. Cleveland is ranked #3 in offensive rating and #4 in points per game.
The Cavs are an elite team. Simply having LeBron James on their roster elevates them to that status. However, elite teams rarely post defensive numbers which are that poor.
San Antonio is still ranked #1 in defensive rating and #2 in points allowed per game.
Can Cleveland just flip the switch during the postseason and be the team that was ranked #4 in the 2016 playoffs in points allowed per game? If they are going to repeat as NBA champions, they are going to have to flip that switch and play much better defense.
Monday night’s game is basically a playoff game if both of these teams are serious about winning the #1 seed in their respective conferences. Cleveland has fallen into a virtual tie for first place in the Eastern Conference with the Boston Celtics, despite the Cavs being one game up in the loss column.
San Antonio is 2.5 games back of Golden State in the Western Conference. However, the Spurs have two head-to-head meetings remaining with the Warriors left on the schedule. The conference title will be decided by the results of those two games. The first of these two meetings is this Wednesday at the Alamodome.
When I saw that game against Golden State on the slate for Wednesday, I started having second thoughts on taking the Spurs tonight. This game against Cleveland tonight is certainly a marquee matchup for the league. However, this game is a look-ahead game for the Spurs.
The Golden State game is more important to the Spurs than the Cleveland game is. If San Antonio splits their final two games with the Warriors, they will be the #2 seed in the West because Golden State has the next tie-breaker with the Spurs. That tiebreaker is the best conference record, or as the NBA league website calls it: “best conference won-loss percentage”.
San Antonio already beat the Cavaliers 118-115 in overtime at Cleveland two months ago on January 21. Kawhi Leonard scored 41 points for the Spurs in that game. James scored 29 points, while Kyrie Irving added 29 points and 9 assists, Tristan Thompson had 14 points and 12 rebounds and Kevin Love added 13 points and 11 boards for Cleveland.
The Spurs do not need to make a statement in tonight’s game. However, the Cavs may feel that they need to leave a calling card for the Spurs in case they see them again in the Finals.
Cleveland has a bounce-back spot here. The Cavaliers are coming off a 127-119 loss at home to the Washington Wizards on Saturday. The Wizards sliced and diced the Cavs’ defense all night, shooting 59.8% from the field for the game. John Wall had 37 points and 11 assists and Bradley Beal added 27 points and 6 assists as the Wizards’ starting backcourt made it look easy against Cleveland. James just missed a triple-double with 24 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists in defeat.
So Cleveland has a revenge-spot for their home loss to the Spurs in January and a bounce-back spot after losing to the Wizards at home two days ago while allowing them to shoot 59.8% for the game. Meanwhile, the Spurs are peeking ahead to the Golden State game on Wednesday. Also, four of the last five games between these two teams were decided by four points or less.
I like the Cavs and the points. I will not bet Cleveland though, as I simply do not trust their defense enough at the moment.
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