Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Free Pick 05/16/18

The Chicago Cubs will be taking on the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. WGN is in line to broadcast this NL matchup and the game gets underway at 7:35 p.m. ET.

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Odds

Atlanta (+115) is coming into this one as the underdog to Chicago (-125) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at 9.5 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at -120 for the under and +100 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at +120 for the Cubs -1.5 runs and -140 for the Braves +1.5 runs.

The Braves are 25-16 SU and 25-15 ATS. They’ve gained 13.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 10.7 units against the spread (ATS). Atlanta has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. The Cubs are 22-17 SU and have gone 17-21 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 5.3 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in the season’s early going and 4.3 units ATS. Chicago has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Atlanta games have had an over/under record of 20-17-3 so far in 2018. The Cubs have an over/under record of 18-20.

The right-handed Tyler Chatwood is the projected starter for the visiting Cubs. Chatwood is 3-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 38 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Braves this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Braves are putting the ball in the right hand of Brandon McCarthy (4-2, 5.58 ERA), who has 30 strikeouts and 15 walks as well as a 1.71 WHIP. McCarthy made two starts against the Cubs in 2017, posting a perfect 2-0 record with a 0.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts.

Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.0 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 3.47, a WHIP of 1.34 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.9. The bullpen has a 3.62 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.

The Atlanta hitters are putting up 5.4 runs per outing, including 4.5 per game over its last 10 games and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .229/.325/.453 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Braves’ hitters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and right fielder Nick Markakis. Freeman is hitting .318/.428/.565 with eight home runs, 31 RBIs and 29 runs scored, and Markakis has produced a line of .337/.406/.524 with seven homers, 30 RBIs and 30 runs.

Freeman performed well against right-handed pitching at home in 2017. Across 160 such plate appearances, he slashed .362/.475/.638 (his overall season line was .307/.403/.586).

In the visiting dugout, Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.37 K/9. The bullpen has managed an outstanding ERA of just 2.66, along with a WHIP of 1.38 and a K-per-9 of 8.58.

The Cubs offense has slashed .253/.334/.427 on its way to 5.3 runs scored per game this year, including 7.0 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Chicago’s hitters have been powered by third baseman Kris Bryant and second baseman Javier Baez, who’ve collectively blasted 18 home runs. Bryant is slashing .288/.421/.583 with eight home runs, 21 RBIs and 27 runs scored, while Baez is hitting .267/.302/.580 with 10 homers, 36 RBIs, 27 runs and five stolen bases.

The Cubs have lost 4.8 units and are 12-15 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 13 of those games, as opposed to 14 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 8.3 units and are 18-11 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 14 of those games, compared to 12 that went under.

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – UNDER

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Betting Notes

Atlanta has recorded 20.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 20.6 over its last five.

The Cubs have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 15 over their last 10.


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