Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
The Cubs are 23-18 SU and are 17-23 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 5.3 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in this young season and 6.3 units ATS. Chicago is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 15-30 SU and 24-20 ATS. They’ve lost 10.5 units for moneyline bettors and 2.1 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in three of those seven.
Reds games have a 20-23-1 over/under record so far in 2018. The Cubs have an over/under record of 18-22.
Left-hander Jose Quintana is projected to start for the visiting Cubs. Quintana is 4-3 with a 5.23 ERA and 38 strikeouts. He has yet to face Cincinnati this year, but he did make two starts against the team in 2017, posting a 1-0 record with a 4.66 ERA and nine strikeouts.
The Reds are putting the ball in the right hand of Sal Romano (2-4, 4.84 ERA), who has 28 punchouts and 19 walks as well as a 1.46 WHIP. Romano only made one start against the Cubs in 2017 (0-0, 2.57 ERA and seven strikeouts across seven innings).
As a unit, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed 5.1 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have a 5.52 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 19 games against NL Central foes, Reds starters have an ERA of 6.29 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.66.
The Cincinnati hitters are putting up 4.1 runs per outing, including 2.8 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .238/.301/.440 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.
First baseman Joey Votto and second baseman Scooter Gennett have led the Reds’ hitters this year. Votto is hitting .284/.411/.432 with six home runs, 24 RBIs and 20 runs scored, while Gennett is hitting .325 with seven homers, 25 RBIs and 21 runs.
Gennett didn’t perform particularly well against lefties last year. Across 115 plate appearances, he slashed .248/.287/.404 (compared to his overall season line of .295/.342/.531).
In the other dugout, Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.87 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.35 K/9. The bullpen has logged an outstanding ERA of just 2.73, along with a K/9 of 8.84.
Cubs hitters have slashed .256/.338/.425 on their way to 5.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Chicago’s offensive production been powered by third baseman Kris Bryant and catcher Willson Contreras. Bryant is hitting .303/.425/.592 with eight home runs, 22 RBIs and 28 runs scored, while Contreras (.287/.366/.503) is up to four homers, 20 RBIs and 16 runs scored.
The Cubs have lost 4.9 units and are 12-17 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 13 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 1.4 units and are 7-5 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has cashed in six of those games, compared to five that went under the total.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER
Each team has hit 14 home runs over its last 10 games.
Cincinnati has averaged 22.4 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 outings and 20.4 over its last five.
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