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Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick 06/21/18

The Chicago Cubs are traveling east to Great American Ball Park to take on their division rival Cincinnati Reds. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and NBC Sports Chicago is in line to televise the action.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Chicago (-155) as the favorite over Cincinnati (+145). Bettors are able to wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at even money (+100) for over 9.5 runs and -120 for under 9.5. You can also bet on the game’s runline with the most recent odds standing at -110 for the Cubs -1.5 runs and -110 for the Reds +1.5.

The Reds are 39-33 against the spread (ATS), but only 28-45 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 12.6 units for moneyline bettors and 4.7 units (ATS). The Cubs, on the other hand, have gone 42-29 SU this year and are 36-34 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 1.4 units for moneyline bettors, but have gained 3.3 units ATS.

Reds games have an over/under record of 34-36-2 thus far in 2018. The Cubs have been a good under bet with a total record of 28-41-1.

Kyle Hendricks will get the nod for the visiting Cubs. The right-handed Hendricks is 5-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 64 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA against Cincinnati this year.

The Reds are going with righty Matt Harvey (1-5, 5.92 ERA), who’s got 46 punchouts and 19 walks, as well as a 1.38 WHIP. Harvey has yet to face the Cubs this year, but he made two starts against them in 2017, putting together a 0-1 record with an 11.05 ERA.

Chicago’s pitchers have allowed 3.5 runs per game and its starters own a 3.40 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.91 K/9. The bullpen has an excellent ERA of just 2.72, along with a WHIP of 1.28.

Cubs hitters have slashed .259/.344/.418 on their way to 4.9 runs scored per game this year, including 4.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Chicago’s hitters have been led by third baseman Kris Bryant and left fielder Albert Almora Jr.. Bryant is hitting .285/.387/.492 with nine home runs, 36 RBIs and 39 runs scored, while Almora Jr. has a .324 average with two homers, 20 RBIs and 38 runs scored.

For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed 5.2 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starters have an ERA of 5.39, a WHIP of 1.49 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.3. The bullpen has a 4.14 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.1 K/9. In 31 games against divisional opponents, Reds starters have an ERA of 5.91 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.34.

The Cincinnati hitters have put up 4.3 runs per outing, including 3.3 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over their last five. The team has hit .282/.365/.486 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and first baseman Joey Votto have paced the Reds’ hitters this year. Gennett is slashing .336/.372/.541 with 13 home runs, 50 RBIs and 37 runs scored, and Votto’s line is .298/.426/.450 with seven homers, 36 RBIs and 36 runs.

The Cubs have lost 5.0 units and are 28-27 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 22 of those games, compared to 32 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 12.4 units and are 28-24 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 22 of those games, as opposed to 29 which went under the total.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – UNDER

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Betting Notes

The under has cashed in five of Cincinnati’s last seven games.

Cincinnati has posted 24.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 25.2 over its last five.

The Cubs have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 13 over their last 10.


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