The Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons both bounced back from losses with big wins last week with the Chiefs taking down the Denver Broncos in overtime on Sunday Night Football while the Falcons hammered the Arizona Cardinals. Only one team will be able to put together a second consecutive win this week though as the two teams meet in Atlanta on Sunday.
Moneyline: ATL -185
Handicap/Spread Odds: ATL -3.5
Total O/U: 49
Last 5 Meetings:
| 9/9/12 | ATL 40 – KC 24 | ATL -1 | O 43 |
| 9/21/08 | KC 14 – ATL 38 | ATL -6.5 | O 37 |
| 10/24/04 | ATL 10 – KC 56 | KC -3.5 | O 44.5 |
| 12/24/00 | KC 13 – ATL 29 | ATL -4.5 | O 41 |
| 09/18/94 | KC 30 – ATL 10 | KC -2.5 | O 47 |
On the Chiefs Side of the Ball: (8-3 Record, 5-6 ATS)
Kansas City has won six of its last seven overall to improve to 8-3 on the season including four straight road wins. Now they will look to add to that streak in their final road game before a three-game home stretch. Alex Smith threw for just 220 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos but it was just enough to pull out the 30-27 overtime win. The Chiefs need to do a better job protecting the passer after Smith was sacked six times by the Broncos and they can’t afford to underestimate Atlanta’s ability to get to the quarterback. While their sack stats aren’t great (just 24 sacks on the year), they are among the league leaders in quarterback pressures.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City defense will have its hands full trying to contain Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense, especially with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman both healthy and producing at a high level right now. Atlanta’s passing offense ranks third in the NFL and their offense leads the league with 32.5 points per game.
Last 5 Results:
| 11/27/16 | @ DEN | W 30-27 | W 3.5 | O 4O |
| 11/20/16 | TB | L 17-19 | L -7 | U 45 |
| 11/13/16 | @ CAR | W 20-17 | W 3 | U 44 |
| 11/06/16 | JAC | W 19-14 | L -7 | U 42.5 |
| 10/30/16 | @IND | W 30-14 | W -3 | U 50.5 |
On the Falcons Side of the Ball: (7-4 Record, 7-4 ATS)
Freeman and Coleman combined for 69 rushing yards and three scores in Sundays’ win over the Cardinals and when healthy, they could very well represent the best running back tandem in the NFL. Ryan threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns and the fact that he can rely on Freeman and Coleman in the backfield has made him that much more steady this season. Julio Jones and Tyler Gabriel both have speed to burn while Mohamed Sanu has developed some strong chemistry as yet another weapon in Atlanta’s explosive offense this season. This used to be a one-dimensional offense with a weak offensive line. Nowadays, they have many facets to their game and have one of the league’s better front fives.
The Falcons defense held Arizona to 332 total yards of offense in last week’s win and as long as they continue to perform at a high level, they will be tough to beat. They’ve also been much improved over last season.
Last 5 Results:
| 11/26/16 | ARI | W 38-19 | W -4 | O 49 |
| 11/13/16 | @ PHI | L 15-24 | L 2 | O 48.5 |
| 11/03/16 | TB | W 43-28 | W -4.5 | O 49 |
| 10/30/16 | GB | W 33-32 | L -3 | O 51 |
| 10/23/16 | SD | L 30-33 | L -4.5 | O 52.5 |
Quick Analysis
The winning side has scored at least 38 points in each of the last three meetings between these two teams and it won’t shock anybody if this is another high scoring game. Despite their 8-3 record overall, Kansas City is just 5-6 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Falcons were 5-1 against the spread to open the season before failing to cover in three of their last five so they could be poised for a bounce back performance. Six of Atlanta’s seven wins have been by seven points or more.
Prediction
The Chiefs have shown the ability to win on the road but five straight road wins would be a lot to ask of any team. It will be extremely difficult to pull off that feat against a tough Atlanta team. The Falcons are much more balanced than they were in past years so the potential is there for them to put up big numbers both on the ground and through the air in this game. And as we’ve come to know with the Chiefs, when they fall behind by more than a score, they don’t have the tools to dig themselves out. Kansas City should be able to keep this game close for a while but we like Atlanta to win and cover the 3.5-point spread.
Pick: Atlanta -3.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
