The Cincinnati Reds are set to take on their NL Central nemesis Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. NBC Sports Chicago will be televising the matchup and the game will get going at 2:20 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Odds
The Cubs are 73-53 straight up (SU) and 62-63 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 0.8 units for moneyline bettors and 2.0 units (ATS). Chicago has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Reds have gone 56-72 SU this year and are 72-55 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 3.3 units for moneyline gamblers, but have gained 4.5 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven.
Cubs games have a 55-67-3 over/under record in 2018. Cincinnati has been a decent over bet with a total record of 66-57-4.
Right-hander Matt Harvey is getting the nod for Cincinnati. Harvey is 6-7 with a 4.91 ERA and 89 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 3.09 ERA against Chicago this year (two starts).
The Cubs will send righty Alec Mills (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound. Mills has two strikeouts and zero walks to his name, as well as a 0.00 WHIP. Mills hasn’t faced the Reds yet this year and did not pitch in the majors last season.
Chicago’s pitching staff has given up 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starters have a 4.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.19, a WHIP of 1.28 and a K/9 of 8.8. In 57 games against NL Central opponents, Cubs starters have an ERA of 3.59 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.50.
Chicago’s hitters are putting up 4.8 runs per contest, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over their last five. The team has hit .254/.320/.429 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Cubs’ batters have been led by second baseman Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Baez is slashing .295/.325/.575 with 27 home runs, 93 RBIs, 78 runs and 21 stolen bases, while Rizzo’s line is .270/.367/.462 with 21 homers, 83 RBIs and 53 runs scored.
For the visiting squad, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.18 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.54 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.13, along with a WHIP of 1.44 and a K/9 of 7.82.
The Reds offense has slashed .258/.336/.405 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Cincinnati’s offensive production has been sparked by second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza. Gennett is slashing .311/.359/.491 with 19 home runs, 75 RBIs and 74 runs scored. Peraza is slashing .294/.336/.410 with eight homers, 42 RBIs, 67 runs and 20 steals.
The Reds have lost 11.3 units and are 50-44 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 47 of those games, compared to 44 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 6.8 units and are 46-51 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 42 of those games, as opposed to 52 that’ve gone under.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has cashed in five of Chicago’s last seven games.
The Reds have dropped three of their last four games SU.
Cincinnati has posted 22.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 23.4 over its last five.
The Reds have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Cubs have hit 13 over their last 10.
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