Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick 04/16/18

The Cincinnati Reds will head west to face their divisional foe Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be showing the matchup and the game is scheduled to get underway at 7:40 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Milwaukee (-135) is the favorite against Cincinnati (+125) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs (-115 for the under and -105 for the over). The game’s most recent runline odds stand at -170 for taking the Reds +1.5 runs and +150 for the Brewers -1.5.

The Brewers are 8-8 SU and 7-8 ATS. They’ve gained 1.9 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 2.9 units against the spread (ATS). Milwaukee has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Reds have gone 2-13 SU this year and are 5-9 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 9.7 units for gamblers taking the moneyline over the early portions of the year and 6.4 units ATS. Cincinnatihas covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.

Brewers games have an over/under record of 7-8 thus far in 2018. Reds games have gone under eight times, gone over six times and pushed on zero instances.

The Reds have lost 2.0 units and are 1-1 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in one of those games, as opposed to one that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 2.9 units and are 5-5 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in five of those games, compared to five which went under the total.

The right-handed Luis Castillo is projected to start for the visiting Reds. Castillo is 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 13 strikeouts. He has yet to face Milwaukee this year, but he made two starts against the Brewers in 2017, putting together a 1-0 record against them with a 1.98 ERA and 19 strikeouts.

The Brewers will put the ball in the left hand of Brent Suter (1-1, 4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), who has 11 punchouts and five walks this season. Suter made two starts against the Reds in 2017, compiling a 0-0 record with a 6.00 ERA.

As a unit, Milwaukee’s pitching staff has yielded 4.3 runs per game overall this year. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.59, a WHIP of 1.42 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.3. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.67, a WHIP of 1.17 and a K/9 of 10.8. In 10 divisional games, Brewers starters have an ERA of 4.73 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.10.

Milwaukee’s offense is putting up 3.5 runs per outing, including 2.7 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .236/.299/.416 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Brewers’ batters have been led by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Thames is hitting .222/.314/.600 with 10 hits, five homers, seven RBIs and eight runs scored, while Aguilar’s line is .421/.522/.526 with eight hits, zero RBIs and four runs scored.

Aguilar didn’t perform particularly well against right-handed pitching at home in 2017. Across 90 such plate appearances, he slashed .171/.244/.366 (his overall season line was .265/.331/.505).

In the other dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 6.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.74 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 6.66 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.96, along with a WHIP of 1.38.

The Reds offense has slashed .224/.303/.325 on its way to 2.9 runs scored per game this season, including 2.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (0-5 SU).

Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and catcher Tucker Barnhart have led Cincinnati’s hitters. Suarez is slashing .296/.424/.630 with eight hits, seven RBIs and five runs scored, while Barnhart is hitting .278 with 10 hits, two homers, three RBIs and four runs scored.

Suarez didn’t seem to enjoy batting on the road last season, putting up a slash line of .248/.353/.340 across 334 plate appearances (his total season line was .260/.367/.461).

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 games SU.

The Cincinnati defense has allowed six errors over its last five games, compared to three errors for Milwaukee over its last five.

The Reds have hit six home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.


Review Date
Reviewed Item
Reds vs Brewers
Author Rating

About GMS Previews

Check Also

New Mexico Lobos at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels ATS Preview 01/22/19

It will be a battle between MWC opponents when the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (10-7, 4-1 …

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview 01/22/19

It will be a battle between SEC opponents when the Alabama Crimson Tide (11-6, 2-3 …

Leave a Reply

Send this to friend